A Nanos Research poll conducted for The Globe and Mail shows that trust in federal party leaders (33%) and preferred platforms/policies (25%) are the primary factors driving voter choices in the Canadian federal election. Strategic voting (13%) and party loyalty (9%) played smaller roles.
The poll highlights differences between Liberal and Conservative voters. Among Liberals, trust in the leader was the dominant factor (50%), while Conservatives were more likely to prioritize platforms and policies (37%).
Nik Nanos noted that Liberal voters seem more focused on Mark Carney, while Conservative voters see Pierre Poilievre as an agent of change.
The survey involved 1,307 respondents from April 21 to 24, with a margin of error of ±2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Party leaders and their platforms and policies are the key factors cited by voters as influencing their decisions, a new poll has found ahead of Monday’s federal election.
Loyalty to a particular party, the leaders’ debates and strategic voting were lesser influences, the survey found.
One-third of respondents to the survey, conducted for The Globe and Mail by Nanos Research, said that “a federal party leader you can trust” was the main factor affecting their voting decision, while 25 per cent cited “a platform/policy you like.”
Only 5 per cent said the federal party leaders’ debates held earlier this month were the main factor.
The poll found strategic voting against a party was deemed the major influence by 13 per cent of respondents, and party loyalty by 9 per cent. A likeable local candidate was the main factor for 7 per cent, and 8 per cent said they were unsure.
The survey of 1,307 respondents took place from April 21 to 24.
The findings come after a record 7.3 million people voted in advance polls over the recent long weekend, a 25-per-cent increase over the 2021 election.
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Among parties’ supporters, 50 per cent of Liberals said they were more likely to be driven by a federal party leader they trust and 17 per cent said they were driven by a platform or policy they like.
Thirty-seven per cent of Conservatives responding to the survey said they were driven by platform or policy while 26 per cent were driven by a federal party leader they trusted.
Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said the results suggest there are different vote drivers for the two front-running parties.
“For the Liberals, it is not about their party or their track record but Mark Carney. Liberal political fortunes are now tightly intertwined with him,” Mr. Nanos said in a statement.
“The Conservatives being more likely to be driven by policy and less by leadership means that Poilievre is more seen as an instrument of a change agenda.”
Respondents were asked the following question: “What is influencing or has influenced your vote decision the most?”
The polling results are considered accurate plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls.
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