Trust in party leaders, platforms key factors driving votes as election day nears, Nanos poll finds - The Globe and Mail


A Nanos Research poll reveals that trust in party leaders and party platforms are the most significant factors influencing voter decisions in the upcoming Canadian federal election.
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Open this photo in gallery:Elections Canada signage is seen at an advance polling location, in Toronto on April 17, 2025.Laura Proctor/The Canadian Press

Party leaders and their platforms and policies are the key factors cited by voters as influencing their decisions, a new poll has found ahead of Monday’s federal election.

Loyalty to a particular party, the leaders’ debates and strategic voting were lesser influences, the survey found.

One-third of respondents to the survey, conducted for The Globe and Mail by Nanos Research, said that “a federal party leader you can trust” was the main factor affecting their voting decision, while 25 per cent cited “a platform/policy you like.”

Only 5 per cent said the federal party leaders’ debates held earlier this month were the main factor.

The poll found strategic voting against a party was deemed the major influence by 13 per cent of respondents, and party loyalty by 9 per cent. A likeable local candidate was the main factor for 7 per cent, and 8 per cent said they were unsure.

The survey of 1,307 respondents took place from April 21 to 24.

The findings come after a record 7.3 million people voted in advance polls over the recent long weekend, a 25-per-cent increase over the 2021 election.

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Among parties’ supporters, 50 per cent of Liberals said they were more likely to be driven by a federal party leader they trust and 17 per cent said they were driven by a platform or policy they like.

Thirty-seven per cent of Conservatives responding to the survey said they were driven by platform or policy while 26 per cent were driven by a federal party leader they trusted.

Nik Nanos, chief data scientist for Nanos Research, said the results suggest there are different vote drivers for the two front-running parties.

“For the Liberals, it is not about their party or their track record but Mark Carney. Liberal political fortunes are now tightly intertwined with him,” Mr. Nanos said in a statement.

“The Conservatives being more likely to be driven by policy and less by leadership means that Poilievre is more seen as an instrument of a change agenda.”

Respondents were asked the following question: “What is influencing or has influenced your vote decision the most?”

The polling results are considered accurate plus or minus 2.7 percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls.

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