The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) published its Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment, warning that a People's Liberation Army (PLA) attack on Taiwan is unlikely in the near future but not impossible, particularly with a second Trump presidency.
The report highlights extremely strained US-China relations, characterized by deep mutual distrust and a lack of dialogue mechanisms. While some tactical improvements occurred under the Biden administration, like resumed military-to-military dialogue, the IISS believes these are unlikely to significantly change the strategic direction under a second Trump term.
The report emphasizes that Trump's first term saw the launch of the US Indo-Pacific strategy, prioritizing the region and acknowledging China's undermining influence. The possibility of similar or intensified actions in a second term is cited as a factor influencing the assessment of the likelihood of a PLA attack.
The report was released ahead of the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's premier annual defense summit, underscoring the relevance of these tensions to regional security. The issues of trade, technology, and Taiwan are key drivers of the tense relationship between Washington and Beijing.
The US–China relationship is “more strained than it has ever been at any other point in the 21st century”, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which published its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment on Wednesday.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing over issues such as trade, technology and Taiwan were setting the tone of a relationship characterised by “deep mutual distrust and a lack of dialogue mechanisms”, the report said.
It noted some tactical improvements during the previous Biden administration, such as the resumption of military-to-military dialogue and an agreement not to include artificial intelligence in nuclear decision-making, but warned that these were unlikely to “significantly alter the strategic direction of the two great powers” during Trump’s second term in office.
“Trump’s first term [2017-2021] saw the US launch its first Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017, which made clear that the region had become a priority for Washington. Central to this strategy was an acknowledgement that Chinese coercion and influence undermined the interests of the US and countries in the Asia-Pacific,” the report said.
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