PLA attack on Taiwan ‘unlikely’ but ‘not impossible’ with Trump in White House: report | South China Morning Post


A British think tank assesses a People's Liberation Army attack on Taiwan as unlikely but possible, especially under a second Trump presidency, due to heightened US-China tensions.
AI Summary available — skim the key points instantly. Show AI Generated Summary
Show AI Generated Summary

A People’s Liberation Army attack on Taiwan is “unlikely in the near future” but “not impossible”, given the risks of misperception and miscommunication with the United States under President Donald Trump, a British think tank has warned.

The US–China relationship is “more strained than it has ever been at any other point in the 21st century”, according to the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), which published its latest Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment on Wednesday.

The release of the report’s 2025 edition comes ahead of this week’s Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier annual defence summit held in Singapore and co-organised by the IISS.

Tensions between Washington and Beijing over issues such as trade, technology and Taiwan were setting the tone of a relationship characterised by “deep mutual distrust and a lack of dialogue mechanisms”, the report said.

It noted some tactical improvements during the previous Biden administration, such as the resumption of military-to-military dialogue and an agreement not to include artificial intelligence in nuclear decision-making, but warned that these were unlikely to “significantly alter the strategic direction of the two great powers” during Trump’s second term in office.

“Trump’s first term [2017-2021] saw the US launch its first Indo-Pacific strategy in 2017, which made clear that the region had become a priority for Washington. Central to this strategy was an acknowledgement that Chinese coercion and influence undermined the interests of the US and countries in the Asia-Pacific,” the report said.

Was this article displayed correctly? Not happy with what you see?

Tabs Reminder: Tabs piling up in your browser? Set a reminder for them, close them and get notified at the right time.

Try our Chrome extension today!


Share this article with your
friends and colleagues.
Earn points from views and
referrals who sign up.
Learn more

Facebook

Save articles to reading lists
and access them on any device


Share this article with your
friends and colleagues.
Earn points from views and
referrals who sign up.
Learn more

Facebook

Save articles to reading lists
and access them on any device