A decline in international air travel to the U.S., partly attributed to President Trump's tariffs and other political factors, is negatively affecting Walt Disney's theme park attendance. International guests represent approximately 20% of Disney's park visitors, and recent data shows a significant year-over-year drop in foreign arrivals.
Airlines like Delta are reporting decreased revenue and reduced capacity planning, reflecting a cautious consumer sentiment amidst global economic uncertainty. This slowdown is likely to impact Disney's operating income, as reduced attendance translates to lower profits. While Disney's experiences division (theme parks, cruises) has been a major profit driver, analysts predict lower-than-expected operating income growth in 2025.
Analysts have differing views on the stock's outlook. Some have upgraded Disney stock, citing that recession risks are largely reflected in the current stock price and pointing to a historically wide discount to the S&P 500. Others, however, have reduced their price targets due to increased competition from Universal's new theme park and reduced Disney World web visits.
Overall, Disney's stock performance reflects the fluctuating impact of tariffs and the company's dependence on international tourism. The upcoming quarterly earnings report will provide further insight into the extent of the impact.