How do Nottingham Forest keep beating the Premier League’s ‘Big Six’ with hardly any of the ball? - The Athletic

Nottingham Forest's Defensive Masterclass

Nottingham Forest has surprisingly accumulated 18 points from a possible 30 against the Premier League's 'Big Six' teams. Their success is remarkable given their low average possession (32%) and low expected goals (xG) in these matches.

Key Tactical Elements

• Compact Defensive Shape: Maintaining a tight defensive structure, with minimal distance between midfield and defensive lines, frustrates opponents and limits high-quality chances.
• Disciplined Midfield: Midfielders hold their positions, avoiding risky runs and maintaining defensive solidity.
• High Press and Swift Transitions: A high press from the front four disrupts opponents' build-up, allowing for quick transitions into dangerous counter-attacks.
• Effective Counter-Attacking: Their forwards, including Hudson-Odoi, Elanga, Gibbs-White, and Wood, capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities, using their individual skills to create scoring chances.

Overperformance and Fortune

Forest's success is partly due to their overperformance in terms of goals scored (50) compared to their expected goals (38). Their ability to consistently take the lead enables them to implement their game plan more effectively.

Conclusion

Nottingham Forest's impressive record against the 'Big Six' is a testament to their well-defined tactical approach, the individual talents of their players, and a fortunate season. While they may not dominate possession, their defensive discipline, counter-attacking efficiency, and ability to capitalize on opportunities have propelled them to unexpected success.