The expert's strategy centers around a 'leverage score,' calculated by subtracting the percentage of users picking a team from the expert's projected odds of that team advancing. A higher leverage score indicates a potential value pick, where the market may be undervaluing a team.
The article provides a detailed breakdown of the expert's picks for each round of the tournament, across the East, West, and South regions. Key factors considered include:
The expert emphasizes the importance of contrarian picks to gain an edge in large payout pools, suggesting opportunities to deviate from popular picks.
Several potential upset picks are highlighted. Notably, the expert suggests considering upsets in the later rounds, especially when popular picks have higher-than-justified user percentages. The expert even suggests that those who don't pick Duke as their champion should take advantage of the fact that Duke is the most-picked team to win it all.
While acknowledging the potential for deviation in alternate brackets, Florida is the expert's primary pick to win the championship.