If it sticks with this plan, the Coalition will run out of time to replace polluting fossil fuels by the Paris Agreement’s 2050 deadline.

The CSIRO found last year that it would take 16 years or more to build the first nuclear reactor in Australia. Also, the Coalition has committed to conducting a two-year study on proposed sites before construction begins – and that is also assuming it overcomes expert warnings that it would take a decade for Australia to establish a nuclear bureaucracy.

On this timeline, the earliest that the first reactor could be up and running is 2046, with an open question over the 12 or so more needed to complete the Coalition’s plan.

The Coalition has claimed Australia could build nuclear reactors far more quickly than the CSIRO’s best-case scenario – within 12 years – citing the authoritarian United Arab Emirates as the example. The chief science agency has said this timeline is unachievable.

Liberal leader Sussan Ley has said “there won’t be a climate war” under her leadership, has acknowledged the need to cut emissions and has committed to relying on her colleagues to determine Liberal policy positions.

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But outspoken Queensland Nationals senator Matt Canavan and his lower house colleague Colin Boyce are campaigning for the party to ditch net zero.

Nationals leader David Littleproud said on Monday he would be “pragmatic” about nuclear policy and consider scaling back to a commitment to remove Australia’s nuclear energy ban.

Interestingly, delegates at the Nationals’ most recent federal conference voted in 2023 to stick with net zero, a key policy for many agricultural exporters who could cop extra tariffs on their exports if Australia ditches the commitment.