Guesses about who the next Roman Catholic pope will be often prove inaccurate. Before the selection of Pope Francis in 2013, many bookmakers had not even counted him among the front-runners.
This time, predictions are further complicated, because Francis made many appointments in a relatively short period during his tenure, diversifying the College of Cardinals and making it harder to identify movements and factions within the group.
Still, discussion of potential names began long ago behind the Vatican’s walls and beyond. As the cardinals began meeting in Rome after Pope Francis’ funeral, papal watchers scrutinized snippets of statements emerging from their discussions, trying to discern whether the electors were leaning toward a candidate who would build on Francis’ agenda or one who would represent a return to a more traditional style.
Cardinals Pietro Parolin of Italy and Luis Antonio Gokim Tagle of the Philippines have been the most mentioned candidates to replace Pope Francis in the days before the conclave, which starts Wednesday. But conclaves are often unpredictable, and this one — with so many new cardinals from so many places who do not know each other well — has even more potential to surprise. A long list of other contenders has already emerged.
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