Not many saw that coming. A Labor victory, yes, and by the end even a majority government. But not many foresaw a landslide that has Labor likely to land on about 90 seats in the House of Representatives.

The first Albanese government was cautious: critics eventually called it timid. A big win, though, unleashes big hopes. Those who want greater boldness from the re-elected Labor government have been assembling their shopping lists.

Ross Garnaut, economist and adviser to the Hawke government, wants Albanese to follow in its footsteps, with reforms that would achieve full employment and a successful transition to renewable energy, setting up Australia for decades of prosperity. Saul Eslake, another economist, agrees. He hopes the government will tackle long-postponed challenges such as tax reform capable of generating the revenue needed for the services Australians want. Richard Denniss, executive director of The Australia Institute, sees in the repudiation of the Liberal Party and the Murdoch media a massive opportunity for progressive reform.

Are these commentators being too optimistic? Certainly, the second term is usually a good time for a government to craft a legacy. It was during the second term of the Hawke government that it achieved its major tax reforms. The Howard government’s second term yielded the goods and services tax as well as its preferred policies on school funding and Medicare. Even the Rudd–Gillard–Rudd governments followed this pattern, with the emissions trading scheme, National Disability Insurance Scheme and Gonski school funding reforms belonging to Labor’s second term.

The promise of the moment is that the re-elected government might have sufficient political capital to think and act beyond the three-year electoral cycle.

To be fair, the government has already put a fair bit on the table. None of it amounts to structural reform. There is a boost of $8.5 billion to Medicare intended to make bulk-billing more readily available, as well as an expansion of the urgent-care clinic network and telehealth services. There is to be an enlargement of the availability of childcare, through the building of more centres, the expansion of others and a guaranteed three days a week of subsidised care. There is debt relief for graduates with student loans – including a one-off 20 per cent cut – as well as assistance to first-home buyers that helps them access a loan with a 5 per cent deposit. Most adventurously, the government has committed $10 billion to build 100,000 homes to sell to first-home buyers.

There is plenty here to keep the politicians and bureaucrats busy. But it is the kind of collection of bits and pieces – each one worthy – that often earns Labor criticism for the absence of “joined up” policy, for a lack of “narrative”. It reflects the nervousness of a party that was only narrowly elected in 2022 and anticipated a rough passage to a second term. So many pundits are now talking about Labor having likely won two terms with this landslide, policy advocates are perceiving the political opportunity of a lifetime.

As the St Vincent de Paul Society put it in connection with housing and homelessness policy, “If not now, then when?” Mark Gaetani, its national president, praised the first-term Albanese government for its seriousness in tackling the housing problem but called for “bolder policies” in tackling homelessness and supporting renters. It is a common refrain among policy advocates. The Albanese government has achieved much but could do more. It should take advantage of its massive majority and the associated mandate to tackle some of the country’s most intractable problems.

Among them is reforming the Federation. It is not going to happen in a day, or even a three-year term. Richard Holden, Scientia professor of economics at UNSW Sydney, thinks federal election campaigns should not be about funding netball courts and play equipment. “Fund states and territories, set them free, and hold them accountable,” he says.

The tax mix needs to change, in Holden’s view. Too much revenue comes from income tax and too little from the GST. The intergenerational bargain is fraying: working-age people are paying income tax to support older Australians who, in turn, enjoy significant tax concessions.

Australian governments do test the waters on tax reform of this kind from time to time. Then, they usually retreat, sometimes with their tails planted firmly between their legs. Energy policy has proved hardly less difficult. Professor Frank Jotzo, director of the Centre for Climate and Energy Policy at the Australian National University, sees opportunities for the government to be more ambitious about decarbonisation. Wind and solar power need to be more rapidly developed, green export industries promoted, infrastructure built for electric vehicles, and the safeguard mechanism (requiring the highest-emitting facilities to reduce their carbon output) should be strengthened.

Jotzo believes an Albanese government might use its majority to aim even higher, as it “has the mandate and obligation to do some of the harder things”. That might include long-awaited projects such as high-speed intercity rail as a more viable alternative to high-emission air travel, and promoting a shift towards more intensive forms of carbon-neutral agricultural production. As a social democratic government, Albanese’s is well placed to ensure that decarbonisation is inclusive and that adversely affected communities and businesses are cared for.

It is tempting to treat such ambition as wishful thinking, but it’s probably more accurate to see it as a response to the policy gridlock of the present century. Australia’s muddling of the energy transition is perhaps the most spectacular of those failures, but low rates of economic growth and flagging productivity point to entrenched structural problems. Government investment in research and development has been going backwards, shortages of skilled workers are chronic, and university reform has been slow and eventually became bogged down in populist politicking.

Universities Australia chief executive officer Luke Sheehy complains of the sector becoming “a political plaything” more than “a policy priority”, especially in connection with international students. Both major parties committed to reducing their numbers, blaming overseas students for housing shortages, but the problems are wider than that, says Sheehy. “The student funding system is broken, government investment in university research is at an all-time low and funding for campus infrastructure is non-existent,” he says.

The National Tertiary Education Union is even more critical of the government’s lack of achievement, with its national president, Dr Alison Barnes, complaining of “little actual change” despite a good deal of activity. The failed Job-ready Graduates package, for instance, remains in place, with its exorbitant fees for humanities students, and university governance is widely acknowledged as a mess.

Like many critics of recent Australian governments, Barnes complains of “short-termism”. The promise of the moment is that the re-elected government might have sufficient political capital to think and act beyond the three-year electoral cycle, which in reality offers a window of only about two years before all eyes turn to the next election.

The Albanese government has often seemed a little like a state or territory Labor government. It came to office in May 2022 without the sense of momentum that had accompanied victories by Gough Whitlam, Bob Hawke or Kevin Rudd. Its majority was the smallest of any opposition entering office at a general election since 1913. It has been pragmatic, centrist and focused on improving the lot of low-paid workers and supporting the living standards of better-off workers and the middle class. It has proved a winning electoral formula: like many first-term state Labor governments, it has managed to turn a slim majority into a landslide.

Above all, it has restored the reputation of the Labor brand, which took a battering during the Rudd–Gillard era. One way it has done so is through an emphasis on orderly process and government integrity. Kieran Pender, associate legal director at the Human Rights Law Centre, argues that a second-term government could build on this record with comprehensive whistleblowing reform, a stronger National Anti-Corruption Commission and a human rights Act. This could leave “a lasting legacy for integrity, accountability and transparency”.

Is Albanese’s that sort of government? It has sometimes seemed to want to make a virtue of its ordinariness. I don’t use the term with pejorative intent: a government that is taken for granted is also a government likely to make people feel “comfortable and relaxed”, as John Howard put it. That is admittedly a strange place to land for a Labor government led by a man who once regarded himself as a socialist, but it is also a measure of the times and of the political instincts of a professional politician at the top of his game. 

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