Few days in recent NBA history have changed the league’s fortunes like Monday. The Dallas Mavericks won the Cooper Flagg sweepstakes, the San Antonio Spurs got the No. 2 pick at the NBA Draft Lottery, and the Boston Celtics’ Jayson Tatum went down with a torn Achilles tendon.

So, what have people around the NBA been talking about in Chicago this week at the NBA Draft Combine? It’s been only tangentially about players on the court, based on conversations I’ve had with league sources. Rather, the buzz has been about what this draft could mean for roster-building league-wide.

Here’s what I’ve been hearing:

What will the Spurs do?

While the surprise of lottery night was the Mavericks winning the No. 1 pick with only a 1.8 percent chance, thoughts on the minds of NBA executives across the league seem to be more focused on the Spurs, who moved up to No. 2. The question here is one of timeline. Do the Spurs think they’re ready to start contending now if they make an all-in move to surround Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox with another star? Or are they going to slow-play their hand a bit longer and wait until Wembanyama is more in the prime of his career?

If they stay at No. 2, the player to select is Dylan Harper. He is nearly unanimously considered the second-best player in the draft class by NBA executives and scouts. Most scouts see him as in a tier of his own at No. 2, clearly ahead of his Rutgers teammate Ace Bailey, Baylor guard VJ Edgecombe, Duke wing Kon Knueppel and Texas wing Tre Johnson. But the fit in San Antonio may be a bit clunky early on between Harper, star point guard De’Aaron Fox and reigning Rookie of the Year Stephon Castle. All three are very smart, skilled basketball players, but all three also grew up playing on the ball.

Fox has established himself as an All-Star. Castle was developed as a point guard in high school, and there are still real struggles with his jump shot. He hit only 30.7 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s this year, per Synergy, and only 24 percent of his pull-up 3s. Many of his best moments came later in the year when he played more consistently as a lead guard. Harper has a bit more of a blend of on- and off-ball skill to his game, but his natural inclination is to score and handle the rock. He hit 37 percent of his catch-and-shoot jumpers at Rutgers, per Synergy, but moving off the ball isn’t second nature to him yet. He still misses relocations and drifts at times in favor of staying out high for an escape pass from a driver.

All of this can be developed, from Castle’s shot to Harper’s instincts. But it might take some growing pains over the next couple of years. Are those growing pains the Spurs are willing to live with? It’s easy to imagine the Spurs going down a similar road to what the Oklahoma City Thunder have in terms of financial structure, with a star guard on a maximum and multiple stars on rookie deals. Most of the sources I talk to around the league think the most likely outcome is that the Spurs do just that: Stand pat and pick at No. 2.

Another option should be on the table, though — if it presents itself. It should come as no surprise that the main name league sources bring up as a potential Spurs trade target is Milwaukee Bucks superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo. With Giannis’ wrecking-ball interior game and Wembanyama’s silky smooth perimeter chops both as a shooter and ballhandler, the two are seen as a natural pairing that could lead to immediate success.

“If the Spurs paired Giannis and Wemby, they would be the favorite to win the title next year,” said one Eastern Conference executive, who was granted anonymity in exchange for his candor. “They’d have two guys who might be top-five players in the league next year on the same team. Plus, they fit. They’d have a dominant defense that no one would be able to score against inside, and they’d have the ability to play five-out in an even more devastating way than the Bucks did with Brook Lopez if they surrounded Giannis and Wemby with the right wings.”

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Victor Wembanyama on the same team? That’s a terrifying thought. (Scott Wachter / Imagn Images)

It sounds absurd on its face, but the more I thought about it, I understand where that executive was coming from.

The defensive dominance is obvious. But even on offense, they would be quite scary in a hurry. Do you consistently put your center on Antetokounmpo defensively and risk him getting beaten down the court by the NBA’s best transition player? Do you play your center on Wembanyama knowing that then he’s pulled away from the rim and can’t help on Antetokounmpo drives? Even throwing Fox into the mix, it would be very difficult to manage Fox/Antetokounmpo ball screens. You can’t switch them, because Fox would hammer bigs in space with his speed. You’d probably want to play drop coverage there, but then the counter would be running ball screens with Fox and Wembanyama and letting him pick-and-pop while Fox drives into the lane and either finishes or finds Antetokounmpo darting toward the rim. And if you run Giannis/Wemby ball screens (with either capable of handling the ball) with Wembanyama pulling up or popping or Giannis driving or rolling, you’d be stressing the defense immensely, because most bigs can’t guard in space like that, especially against two aliens possessing among the most rare measurements and tools the NBA has seen.

We haven’t seen a truly modern twin towers setup, in which both towers have a true perimeter game in addition to being elite defenders. The devil is in the details of what the asking price would be, of course. The Spurs can’t sell everything to get Antetokounmpo, but they certainly are now one of the teams who could meet the undoubtedly massive price the Bucks would demand if Antetokounmpo becomes available. If I were running the Spurs, it would be hard for me to pass up the opportunity if it presented itself.

Speaking of …

The Bucks as a potential lottery winner?

The read on the Bucks from the rest of the league right now is that they hope to keep Antetokounmpo. To the knowledge of everyone I’ve spoken to around the league, Milwaukee has not yet hit a point at which he is available. That may come — and sources around the league are prepping in case that time comes soon — but the organization genuinely loves Antetokounmpo and loves having him as its cornerstone.

Undeniably, though, the Bucks are in a tough situation. Damian Lillard will miss a significant portion of next season as he recovers from his torn Achilles. Lopez is slated to hit unrestricted free agency. Beyond that, the team’s moves around its core group have not worked out well, from draft-pick misses to the disastrous trade for Kyle Kuzma at the deadline. It’s hard to see this group going anywhere next season, even with Antetokounmpo around. The best route for them over the next year is to try to move Kuzma for a player whose contract expires in 2026, sign no players to a deal longer than one season and try to enter the summer of 2026 with max cap space and flexibility. But if they do that, it likely involves bottoming out this year. Is Giannis willing to live with playing one season near what could be the end of his prime with little hope of contention, while praying that Lillard can come back effectively from his injury and that the Bucks can make waves in the 2026 offseason? Or is this the natural time for him to ask for a new beginning with a different organization?

That’s why conversation around Giannis has picked up in league circles. He’s clearly at an inflection point in his career, and with only two years guaranteed left on his deal, this would be the ideal time for the Bucks to cash in. But if Antetokounmpo decides that he wants out, the Bucks got very lucky with Monday’s lottery results. Let’s live in that hypothetical land for a second.

While no one around the league believes that Dallas will move Flagg for Antetokounmpo, San Antonio getting the No. 2 pick might have been the best outcome for the Bucks. There is a real case that Harper is the best asset that could reasonably be on the table in a Giannis trade, given his potential stardom and the contract control the team would have over him. Whether the Spurs would even offer the No. 2 pick is certainly a question.

However, what’s not in question is that the Bucks could leverage the threat of the Spurs having the No. 2 pick and interest in Giannis over other teams. For instance, the Houston Rockets are seen by league sources as a team that will be interested in Giannis if he comes available. Before Monday night, the Spurs didn’t really have an asset outside of Wembanyama that was on the same level as, say, Alperen Şengün or Amen Thompson. With all due respect to Castle, his value league-wide is more mixed, as some executives love his upside, whereas others worry about his inefficiency as a shooter long-term. Now that the Spurs have No. 2, though, the Bucks can leverage those two teams against each other to try and drive a bidding war. Getting Harper for a full four-year rookie deal is seen as being that valuable in league circles. Beyond just those two teams, the Bucks can also demand just about every selection the Brooklyn Nets own. If the Toronto Raptors want to get involved, it’s hard to see now how they’d be able to keep Scottie Barnes out of the deal.

Even the Philadelphia 76ers getting the No. 3 pick was a minor win for the Bucks, as Daryl Morey is seen league-wide as one of the executives most likely to try to get creative and swing a star trade. There is a very real difference in value between picks No. 2 and No. 3 in this draft in league circles, but it’s another option for the Bucks.

You could argue that none of these teams will bid what it takes to pull Giannis out of Milwaukee, but that feels extremely unlikely. After all, teams would be acquiring a player who has a genuine case as the best player in the world in his prime who is coming off seven straight top-four MVP finishes and a monster 30-point, 12-rebound, six-assist season in which he showed that he is getting better at certain things, such as the midrange jumper. The level to which Giannis is better than even Anthony Davis was when he got traded by the New Orleans Pelicans in 2019 is drastic, and Davis got traded for two recent top-five picks (Brandon Ingram and Lonzo Ball), another interesting young player in Josh Hart, a No. 4 pick, two additional future first-round picks and a first-round pick swap.

Again, all of this only matters if the Bucks put Antetokounmpo on the table, which they haven’t. Yet.

Draft starts with Sixers

Philadelphia is also expected to be aggressive in how it looks to utilize its luck in winning the No. 3 pick. The East has never looked more wide open for the taking, with the Bucks at a crossroads, the Cleveland Cavaliers’ continuing playoff struggles and Tatum’s Achilles tear likely to hold him out for the year. If Joel Embiid can use this summer to get his knee right, the Sixers could easily find themselves right back in the hunt in the East if things break right.

It’s expected that the Sixers will listen to offers for No. 3, but it’s unclear whom the team would take if it stays. Rutgers’ Bailey has been seen as the biggest upside swing, and he fills a theoretical position of need for Philly as a big wing. But he is also viewed as more of a project by scouts and executives, and this is a Sixers front office that likely needs to win next year to keep its jobs. I’ve also gotten a wider sense of appreciation from NBA front offices for Edgecombe than Bailey.

Morey and company also typically care about how players perform in pre-draft analytics models, and Bailey’s performance in those is not particularly strong because of his inefficiency, unwillingness to pass and starkly negative assist-to-turnover rate. Models are far from the be-all, end-all for the Sixers, who have hired a robust scouting and intel staff in recent years under Morey led by VPs of player personnel Prosper Karangwa and Ariana Andonian. But if they end up keeping the pick, I’m not convinced that Bailey will be the guy.

That leads into how the next group of prospects fits on this roster, though. Edgecombe is the smallest player whom I have rated in my top 15. Does he work for a team that has Tyrese Maxey and Jared McCain in addition to Quentin Grimes’ restricted free-agency rights? Morey could also just take the shot on the best player available. Tre Johnson’s shooting would certainly fit with Maxey, Embiid and George, but his defensive concerns are real on a roster that could already be quite small in the backcourt. Knueppel is maybe the easiest fit of the group, but he is perceived by many scouts to not have an immense amount of upside. Other executives have also asked if they could look at a backup center option for Embiid like Duke’s Khaman Maluach that early, but I’m skeptical that Morey would see that as the best way to maximize his current roster’s title chances.

If I had to guess the Sixers’ direction — and I can’t emphasize enough that this is just my read — I would put both Edgecombe and Knueppel as more likely than Bailey if they keep the pick. That is obviously subject to change over the next month, as the team brings prospects in for workouts and continues to work through its process. But both of those guys tick more boxes for me with the Sixers than Bailey does.

V.J. Edgecombe could be an option at No. 3 — either for the Sixers or a team willing to trade up. (William Purnell / Imagn Images)

Ultimately, I wonder if the best option might be to see if there is a team that wants to jump ahead of the Charlotte Hornets, Utah Jazz and New Orleans to take a flier on Bailey or Edgecombe. For instance, would Brooklyn look at a deal in the ballpark of Cam Johnson, No. 19 and No. 27 for Kelly Oubre Jr., Andre Drummond and No. 3? Such a deal would allow the Nets to potentially get the upside swing at No. 3, keep No. 8 and still have another late first-round pick to accumulate talent. For the Sixers, they’d get a player who helps them a lot the next two years in Johnson, then they would get two later firsts this year to be able to potentially get a wing (say, Nique Clifford, Liam McNeeley, Noah Penda or Will Riley at No. 19) and a backup big man (maybe Ryan Kalkbrenner at No. 27) to fill a lot of holes on the roster.

That deal is also just about cash-neutral if you throw in a swap of Eric Gordon to the Nets and Drew Timme to the Sixers, while also accounting for the cost difference between the $11.1 million that the No. 3 pick will be owed at 120 percent of the rookie scale and the combined $6.6 million that the No. 19 and No. 27 picks would be owed. Such a deal would keep the Sixers about $22 million away from the second apron, allowing them to re-sign Grimes and still potentially have enough space to try to use the taxpayer midlevel exception to keep Guerschon Yabusele.

That would mean a seven-player core of Maxey, Grimes, George, Johnson, Embiid, McCain and Yabusele. Hopefully, the Sixers could count on minutes from a backup rookie center or Adem Bona, use Jared Butler as their fourth guard, and then use Justin Edwards and/or the rookie wing to eat up some minutes. Ultimately, everything for the Sixers depends on Embiid’s health, but that’s a formidable team if he gets back.

There are other avenues like this one that the Sixers could explore, of course. This is only one example. But clearly, they’re a team to watch here as the draft process unfolds.

Dead zone for point guards?

Any lead guard who struggles to play off the ball should hope that he’s going in the top eight. Otherwise, he could be in for a longer night than expected. With Dallas leaping into the No. 1 pick, it’s unclear how many teams near the end of the lottery will be in the market for a point guard.

Run through the draft order. It’s hard to find the landing spot for a lead guard who can’t play off the ball from No. 9 to No. 15.

• Toronto at No. 9: The Raptors have Immanuel Quickley on a long-term deal, have a backup in Jamal Shead on a cheap deal, plus have several bigger on-ball options, including Barnes and Brandon Ingram. It would be strange to see them invest in another on-ball player.

• Houston at No. 10: The Rockets have Fred VanVleet under a team option, plus they drafted a player that they’re still extremely happy with in Reed Sheppard at No. 3 last year.

• Portland at No. 11: The Trail Blazers have Scoot Henderson, Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe. Maybe they move Simons this year, but sources around the Blazers note that they’re pleased with the development Henderson made in the back half of the season.

• Chicago at No. 12: The Bulls are likely on the verge of handing Josh Giddey a large contract extension.

• Atlanta at No. 13: The Hawks have Trae Young, which makes it hard to play another lead guard.

• San Antonio at No. 14: We’ve already referenced the Spurs’ lead guard situation above.

• Oklahoma City at No. 15: The Thunder have Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, plus they just drafted both Nikola Topić and Ajay Mitchell last year.

Starting at No. 16, you can make a case for a lead guard with the Orlando Magic. But at No. 17, the Minnesota Timberwolves traded a future first-round pick to take Rob Dillingham last year, and the Washington Wizards (No. 18) traded Deni Avdija to take Bub Carrington last year.

The draft order might not stay the same. We might look up and see Brooklyn, Orlando, Utah or others try to move up into that range using their draft assets to get the guy they want. There is a very reasonable bet that something like this happens. But can it happen for all of those guards? As the draft is presently constructed, guys like Jeremiah Fears, Nolan Traoré, Jase Richardson and others might want to hope they hear their name called in the top eight. Otherwise, their agents might have to make a lot of phone calls to see if a team can move up to get their guy.

(Top photo of Dylan Harper: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)