This article discusses the impact of the US-China trade conflict on U.S. Treasury yields. The escalating tariff war between the two countries is causing uncertainty in the market.
The increased tariffs have led to a downward revision of the fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield from 4.5% to 4.0%, indicating a bearish outlook influenced by the trade war. The uncertainty caused by the escalating trade tensions significantly impacts market predictions and investor behavior.
The floor of the New York Stock Exchange on April 7, 2025.
Spencer Platt | Getty Images
U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Tuesday as investors assess U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policy and threats of even higher levies against China.
At 7:04 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was marginally higher at 4.164%. The 2-year Treasury yield ticked down less than 1 basis point at 3.736%.
One basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Over the weekend, Trump committed to his aggressive global tariffs strategy with an initial unilateral 10% tariff taking effect Saturday. The president's swathe of "reciprocal" tariffs are set to begin on April 9.
Trump on Monday said he would slap an additional 50% duties on U.S. imports from China if Beijing does not lift the 34% tariffs it imposed on U.S. products last Friday. China in turn said it opposes Trump's threats and vowed to "fight to the end."
"Because the tariffs announced thus far are higher than previously expected, we think the risk is now skewed toward more rate cuts by year-end," said Saira Malik, head of Nuveen equities and fixed income.
"Our probability-weighted guidance has increased from a total of four Fed cuts through 2025 and 2026 to 6.6 cuts, while our assessment of fair value for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has fallen from 4.5% to 4.0%," she added.
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