The article discusses the impact of the Trump trade wars on global markets, particularly the Australian sharemarket. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its US growth projection significantly, highlighting the negative economic consequences of the tariffs.
Investors are moving funds from the US to Australia and Asia, viewing the Australian market as more stable and predictable. This has led to increased investment in Australian equities and significant gains in specific sectors.
The Australian sharemarket is considered a defensive player, offering a more stable environment compared to the unpredictable US market. Financials, particularly banks, are performing exceptionally well, insulated from the impacts of trade wars and expected to generate record profits.
Experts emphasize the ongoing uncertainty and volatility due to the trade war, despite a slight easing of tensions. The strong performance of the Australian market is attributed to its stability and the appeal of defensive stocks during times of economic uncertainty.
The tariffs are predicted to hit the US economy harder. The IMF has slashed the projection for US growth from 2.7 to 1.8 per cent, or about $650 billion in dollar terms.
“The [investor] money is all coming out of the United States,” Liu says. “The US market has historically been the biggest allocation for any portfolio. We are seeing most of them coming out of the US going into equities into Australia and Asia.”
The biggest beneficiary of the trade war is gold, the price of which has soared almost 18 per cent since so-called Liberation Day, and more than 40 per cent over the past year. On the local index, gold miner Northern Star Resources has climbed 15 per cent since April 2; Evolution Mining is up 12 per cent; and Newmont Corporation has lifted 11 per cent.
“The degree of uncertainty in the economic and political spaces are sufficiently high, and that underpins gold,” said ABC Refinery global head of institutional markets Nick Frappell.
“We still see evidence of official sector demand of governments buying gold, and certainly good evidence of Chinese demand.”
‘The US market is very unpredictable, whereas our market has been pulling us higher.’
Moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir
With Trump softening his tone on the imposition of 145 per cent import taxes on China after Xi Jinping slapped 125 per cent tariffs on America, gold prices have slightly pulled back, but Frappell said volatility and uncertainty remained.
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Other publicly listed companies to be boosted by the trade war include the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and “defensive stocks” such as Telstra, which have climbed by 6.4 per cent and 2.8 per cent, respectively.
Opal Capital Management founder and chief investment officer Omkar Joshi said CBA, which fund managers had said for a while was overpriced, was seen as a safe investment option, especially among global investors.
“It’s large, liquid, there’s nothing going wrong [at CBA], the earnings are pretty stable, and it attracts flows pretty easily,” Joshi said.
Moomoo market strategist Jessica Amir said the Australian sharemarket was seen as a “defensive player” in the trade war.
“The US market is very unpredictable, whereas our market has been pulling us higher,” Amir said.
“No.1 [performer] are financials because banks are totally insulated from the trade wars, and banks are expected to make record profits in the full financial year. No.2 are gold miners and No.3 industrials because they win regardless of tariffs, trade wars and who wins the [Australian] election.”
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