Depending on your point of view, Donald Trump’s first 100 days in the White House have been either an unmitigated disaster or a rip-roaring success. Pam Bondi, the US Attorney General, won first prize for the most toe-curling homage to her boss at a cabinet meeting this week.

“Mr President, your first 100 days have far exceeded that of any other presidency in this country ever. Ever. Never seen anything like it. Thank you!” she grovelled, like a Kim Jong-un acolyte.

Then again, the economist Larry Summers, who predicted the runaway inflation under Joe Biden, raged: “This has probably been the least successful first hundred days of a presidency this century. We have seen the stock market go down, the dollar go down, forecasts of unemployment go up, forecasts of inflation go up, forecasts on the odds of a recession go up.”

There isn’t much middle ground between these verdicts, but I’m going to try to carve out some space. Trump’s authoritarianism and grift pose a serious challenge to democratic norms. But I’m surprised by the haste of critics to dump on the President as though his four-year period in office was already doomed.

It’s true that the US economy is sputtering and the constitution is being trashed, but Trump is carrying out his election promises at a clip. It is possible that, after hitting the buffers a few times, we are about to see some of his policies pay off.

If so, the doom-mongers will look like chumps. The media, cast as the villain in Trump’s White House reality show, will be vulnerable to accusations of having pumped out malicious “fake news”. This will empower Trump to behave with more impunity.

I have yet to meet a Maga voter with regrets. They are more likely to say, approvingly: “Promises made, promises kept.”

The economy is sputtering and the constitution being trashed, but Trump is carrying out his election promises at a clip

First, immigration. Snatching people off the streets and imprisoning them without due process offends all decency, but the impact of this policy has been profound. Migrant crossings at the southern US border have fallen to historic lows. Only 8,400 were recorded by border patrol agents in April, compared to 128,894 under Biden last April.

The courts are scoring some victories over the Trump administration, leading to the release of some detainees, such as the Columbia University student and pro-Palestine protester Mohsen Mahdawi. Just as often, their decisions are ignored.

But the point has been made. The US border is closed, immigrants are not welcome and free speech is qualified. Come if you dare.

Second, tariffs. These have created havoc and empty container ports suggest there may be worse to come. Trump conceded tariffs cause inflation when he said blithely that US kids might have to settle for “two dolls rather than 30”.

However, the stock market is recovering from its swoon. Trade deals with India, Japan and South Korea are in the offing. The UK won’t be in the first swathe of countries but has high hopes for a deal.

Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, says she is having “a good conversation” with the administration. Mark Carney, the victorious Canadian Prime Minister, arrives in Washington next week. Trump treats him with respect and calls him a “gentleman”.

A host of countries are offering to invest in the US, and the European Union is reportedly willing to purchase an extra €50bn in American goods.

At the White House National Prayer Day, Trump said tariffs were “beautiful for us if you can use them, get away with using them. It will make us very rich. We will be paying off debt, lowering your taxes substantially, because so much money will be taken in”.

Whether he is right or not about this, the President certainly intends to make tax cuts. Republicans won’t be worried if the poorest Americans pay for them with price hikes on everyday goods.

Third, Ukraine. The US minerals deal looks less punitive than critics feared. Volodymyr Zelensky has welcomed it as a “truly equal agreement”. Kyiv gets to keep “full ownership” of its resources and the Trump administration has approved $50m in defence sales. The pressure is on Russia to stop fighting.

A few prominent Democrats think it is too soon to write Trump off as a busted flush. Gavin Newsom, governor of California, has been hobnobbing with Maga influencers on his new podcast.

Gretchen Whitmer, governor of Michigan, has gone further. She attended a meeting with Trump at the White House and greeted him at an air base rally celebrating his 100 days in office, where he announced new investment in fighter jets.

The first time, she was embarrassed and hid her face from the cameras. The second time, she accepted a hug from the President. She thinks she knows which way the wind is blowing.

Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting