China may well come to dominate the next centuryâbecause President Donald Trump is taking a page from the most famous Chinese leader of the previous one.
The United States remains the worldâs preeminent soft power. Itâs a financial and cultural juggernaut, whose entertainment and celebrities bestride the planet. But as an industrial power, the U.S. is not so much at risk of falling behind as it is objectively behind already. A recent essay in the journal Foreign Affairs by Rush Doshi and Kurt Campbell, both China experts who served in the Biden administration, made the case with alarming specificity. China makes 20 times more cement and 13 times more steel than the U.S. It makes more than two-thirds of the worldâs electric vehicles, more than three-quarters of its electric batteries, 80 percent of its consumer drones, and 90 percent of its solar panels. Chinaâs shipbuilding capacity is several orders of magnitude larger than Americaâs, and its navy will be 50 percent larger than the U.S. Navy by 2030.
The Trump administration clearly recognizes the need to rebuild industrial capacity. In its executive order published on âLiberation Day,â the White House suggested that, without high tariffs, Americaâs âdefense-industrial baseâ is too âdependent on foreign adversariesââa clear allusion to China.
But Trumpâs approach to countering China has been so scattershot, so inept, so face-smackingly absurd, that it sometimes seems like covert policy to destroy Americaâs reputation. Rather than build a global trading and supply-chain alliance to match the scale of China, weâve threatened to invade Canada and slapped new tariffs on our European and East Asian allies. Rather than invest in scientific discovery, which is the basis of our technological supremacy, the administration threatens to decimate the National Institutes of Health and the National Science Foundation while attacking major research universities, including Harvard and Columbia. Rather than compete on clean energy, the White House has targeted solar and wind subsidies for destruction. Rather than invest in nuclear power by expanding the Department of Energyâs Loan Programs Office, which provides billion-dollar loan guarantees for nuclear projects, the administration dismissed 60 percent of its staff. Rather than secure our reputation as the worldâs premier destination for global talent, weâre driving away foreign students.
âIf you take every asymmetric American advantageââour universities, our science, our reputation for attracting the worldâs smartest young peopleââweâre going after each of them in a fit of cultural Maoism,â Doshi told me last week. Mao Zedong, who led Chinaâs one-party state after World War II, oversaw a fraught and fatal attempt to industrialize the country, known as the Great Leap Forward. His regime was infamous for its cult of personality and its purging of ideological enemies, not to mention millions of deaths from starvation.
Doshi does not think that Trump will starve millions of Americans to death (nor do I). But he does see Trumpâs second term featuring a âcult of personality,â he told me, which may not quite be Maoist but does feel Mao-ish. The first 100 days of this administration were âdefined by the relentless targeting of individuals and organizations for their heretical views and purges within the administration for those deemed insufficiently loyal. And its destination is the destruction of state capacity and leading institutions as fervor and zeal overwhelm any prudence and planning.â
Doshi isnât the only one making this analogy. Several weeks ago, the writer Rotimi Adeoye identified what he called âMAGA Maoismâ in The Washington Post. Like the Chinese Cultural Revolution, he said, the Trumpist right seems obsessed with scrubbing any vestige of progressive thought from government libraries and government-funded museums. As The New York Timesâ Jamelle Bouie has written, the White House has yanked books by Black, female, and Jewish authors from the Naval Academy (while leaving Mein Kampf in place), accused the National Museum of African American History and Culture of spreading âimproper ideology,â and urged the National Park Service to rewrite its history of the Underground Railroad.
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Another eerie echo of Mao has been MAGAâs glorification of strong men doing strong things and its dreams of sending the liberal elites to the factories and the fields to teach them a lesson. In a commencement address at the University of Alabama, Trump encouraged business majors âto apply your great skills that youâve learned ⌠to forging the steel and pouring the concrete of new American factories, plants, shipyards, and even cities.â As the journalist Michael Moynihan observed, this sounded curiously like Maoâs suggestion in 1957 that âthe intellectualsââincluding âwriters, artists, teachers, and scientific-research workersââshould âseize every opportunity to get close to the workers and peasants,â even if it meant living in rural China for several years to work as âtechnicians in factoriesâ or âtechnical personnel in agriculture.â
For years, both major parties have looked to China with envy. How can they make so much, so quickly, while we struggle to build sufficient housing in major citiesâmuch less advanced electronics, computer chips, robots, and ships? Under Trump, China envy has taken a strange turn. Rather than compete, we seem to be ceding the future to China while emulating its pastâcasually gutting the governmentâs ability to support science and key technologies while hunting down wrongthink with the same ferocity that Trump supporters once despised among progressives.
In the past week, the Mao vibes have gotten especially weird. In the 1950s and â60s, Mao demanded that ordinary Chinese families sacrifice for the general goodâfor example, by melting their kitchen utensils and other metallic items to increase national steel production. (This mostly produced a lot of useless pig iron.) Trump, for his part, has become fixated on new methods of economic sacrifice. âMaybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, and maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally,â he said, in defense of his tariffsâ likely effect of obliterating the toy business. Going further, he told NBC that students âdonât need to have 250 pencils, they can have five.â Just over 100 days into this term, what the Trump supporter Bill Ackman called âthe most pro-growth, pro-business administrationâ in modern history is defending the rationing of Elsa dolls and No. 2 pencils.
Trumpâs administration is still young, and it has an uncanny ability to pack each week with a yearâs worth of news. Optimistically, there are many more weeks for Trumpâs economic and cultural policy to get better. Realistically, there is plenty of time for both to get worse. By driving away talented immigrants, by targeting our most successful universities, by torching our trading alliances, by dismantling our industrial policy, by slashing our scientific funding, and by hurting Americaâs reputation around the world at the precise moment that we need global scale to build a secure counterpart to Chinaâs industrial dominance, Trump has responded to the threat of China by mimicking the ghost of its past.
When I asked the Foreign Affairs co-author Kurt Campbell for his assessment of Trump, he told me that he has had alarming conversations with analysts in China. âSome of them will candidly say, âYou know, we had our timetables for how we might come at you ⌠for how we might pull [you] away [from] your allies,ââ Campbell said. ââAnd what youâre doing in three or four months exceeds what we would have hoped to do in five or 10 years.ââ The ultimate accomplishment of American Maoism would be this: Our great leap backward would give China the global preeminence that Mao himself failed to achieve on his own.
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