People with mental health problems and “invisible” physical conditions could be among those most likely to lose out from Labour’s disability benefits cuts, experts have warned.

It comes as The i Paper’s analysis of official data shows the kind of health conditions – and the age groups – which may be mostly likely to fall foul of the reforms.

Disability campaigners have urged ministers to rethink “cruel” plans to restrict access to personal independence payment (PIP) in a drive to cut £4.8bn from the welfare bill.

Labour wants to reduce the PIP caseload by 400,000 people by the end of the decade, with the reforms expected to come into force from November 2026.

Just over 3.7 million people currently receive PIP worth up to £750 a month to support their daily needs and to get around independently.

However, under the changes, PIP applicants must score four points in at least one activity category to get a daily living payment, worth up to £440 a month.

Applicants need to get at least eight points in total for the standard daily living PIP award.

The changes mean that having less severe difficulties in completing tasks – which can typically lead to scores of one, two or three points in a series of categories – will no longer be good enough.

The latest Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) data shows that “invisible” physical conditions – including back pain, arthritis, musculoskeletal issues and chronic pain syndromes – are the least likely to score four points or more.

Some 71 per cent of PIP claimants with musculoskeletal problems and 68 per cent of those with chronic pain syndromes did not score four points or more in any category at their last assessment.

People with anxiety and depression also appear vulnerable to the benefit reforms.

Some 48 per cent of PIP claimants with these mental health conditions did not score four points or more.

Mikey Erhardt, of Disability Rights UK, said it was “hard to work out the Government’s logic” for reforms which were aimed at getting more people into work when PIP was not an out of work benefit.

“Some of those physical conditions where you’re less likely get four points – back pain, musculoskeletal conditions – can be the result of poor work conditions, physically demanding jobs.

“They are the jobs you’re least likely to get reasonable adjustments [from employers]. So it seems cruel, because how are those conditions going to suddenly improve to allow people to get into work?”

James Merrell, a registered nurse who advises people on PIP claims at CWS Limited, thinks that those with mental ill-health and invisible conditions were likely to struggle under a tougher framework.

Merrell said those with severe physical disabilities that are “visually apparent” may be more likely to keep their PIP.

But he warned that many of those living with invisible physical conditions were dealing with severe, chronic pain and struggled to function day to day.

“To reduce their needs to whether they can score four points on an arbitrary, narrow test is not only clinically unsound, it’s disgusting and humiliating,” the expert added.

There are fears that a review of the whole PIP assessment process could make it tougher for those with mental health conditions. The Government has continually highlighted the huge rise in PIP claims related to mental health in recent years.

“When it comes to the PIP assessment review, all the noise, everything the Government has said, would suggest they would want to make the process harder for mental ill health and distress,” said Erhardt.

Minesh Patel, associate director of policy at Mind, said the charity was worried that the reforms will “reduce or restrict PIP for people with a mental health problem who desperately need it”.

The DWP data also suggests that people with learning disabilities, autism and cerebral palsy are among those most likely to avoid falling foul of the four-point rule PIP changes.

A recent report by the Resolution Foundation think tank found that people with these conditions are “least likely to be affected” by the changes – based on having the highest proportion of claimants scoring 21 points or more.

Older people are more likely than younger people to miss out on PIP when the changes are introduced, DWP data also suggests.

Only 24 per cent of current PIP claimants in their twenties do not currently get the four points that will be needed in at least one category.

By comparison, 56 per cent of PIP claimants in their fifties do not get the required four points. For people aged 60 and older, the proportion is even higher: 58 per cent of them do not get the required points.

The DWP have stated that pensioners who continue to claim PIP “will not be affected by the proposed changes”.

But the data suggests that the cuts could hit working-age people in their fifties and early sixties who have not yet reached the state pension age particularly hard.

Caroline Abrahams, charity director at Age UK said PIP makes up just over one-third of net income among people aged 60 to 65 “so we are very worried about the prospect of people losing this vital money”.

She added: “Many people in their early and mid-sixties are struggling financially, which can coincide with a decline in health.”

Responding to analysis of official figures – shared via a recent FOI request – a DWP spokesperson said: “This data is partial and doesn’t reflect that the majority of people who are currently getting PIP will continue to receive it.”

They added: “We will never compromise on protecting people who need our support, and our reforms will mean the social security system will always be there for those who will never be able to work, and that their income is protected.”

The Government has said PIP mobility payments, worth up to £77 a week, will not be affected by changes.