The budget fight in Washington, D.C. may soon pressure Wall Street


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Key Concerns Regarding the Budget Bill

The article highlights the ongoing budget negotiations in the US Congress, focusing on the potential impact on Wall Street. Republican infighting over the SALT deduction is delaying the bill's passage, endangering the GOP's aim to pass it before Memorial Day.

Potential Economic Consequences

Even if a deal is reached, the process is likely to increase US government debt unless economic growth significantly accelerates. This could worsen the fiscal issues that led Moody's to downgrade the US government's credit rating. The increased debt supply might put pressure on the bond market, potentially impacting borrowing rates, the dollar, and equities, as noted by experts from UBS and Bank of America.

Expert Opinions

  • UBS's chief investment officer, Solita Marcelli, anticipates the bill will add trillions to the deficit, increasing Treasury debt supply and impacting the bond market.
  • Bank of America economist Stephen Juneau warns that increased supply in a softening demand market could spike borrowing rates, weaken the dollar, and hurt equities.
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Tariff fears have subsided on Wall Street, but rocky negotiations on Capitol Hill over tax and federal budget changes could give traders a new headache in coming weeks. The massive budget bill in the House of Representatives hit a road block on Tuesday when blue state Republicans signaled that they would not support the bill without a larger deduction for state and local taxes, often referred to as "SALT." The hold out comes despite President Donald Trump personally getting involved in negotiations and signals that the GOP leadership's goal of passing the bill before Memorial Day weekend is in peril. Even if the SALT issues are ironed out — and the House and Senate eventually strike a deal — the process seems poised to result in more U.S. government debt, unless economic growth accelerates dramatically. That could potentially exacerbate the fiscal issues that contributed to the decision by Moody's Ratings to downgrade the U.S. government's credit last week, and lead to more selling in the bond market, where the 30-year Treasury yield is already near 5%. US30Y YTD mountain The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield is trading back near 5%. Yields move opposite of price. "Trump's 'one big, beautiful bill' is likely to see various amendments before it is passed in the two chambers of Congress and signed into law, but it nonetheless is expected to add trillions of dollars to the country's [$36 trillion] deficit over the next decade," Solita Marcelli, UBS global wealth management's chief investment officer Americas said in a note to clients on Tuesday. "This will likely lead to an increase in the supply of Treasury debt, exerting pressure on the bond market." Similarly, Bank of America U.S. economist Stephen Juneau said in a note to clients Tuesday that the reconciliation bill would likely add to the deficit and raises the risk of a "bond-buyer-strike." "Adding more supply to the market at a time when demand is softening could result in a spike in borrowing rates, a decline in the dollar, and a drop in equities. This could overwhelm any growth effects from the bill itself," Juneau wrote. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.

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