The absence of official poverty estimates after 2011–12 has led to a new debate about the recent evolution of poverty in India. Reviewing the existing estimates of consumption-based poverty after 2011–12, it is argued that a slowing of poverty reduction after 2011–12 is most likely. A variety of complementary indicators of poverty in India are assembled and probed, focusing on trends in aggregate income, as well as wages, earnings, and employment. Given the absence of a clear resolution to the vexed issues of non-comparability of consumption over time and space, choice of poverty lines and price deflators, a precise assessment of poverty decline remains pending. However, there are sufficient grounds for concern, and a doubling-down on poverty reduction efforts is clearly warranted.

The authors gratefully acknowledge the comments and suggestions from Mahendra Dev and thank Oxford Policy Management for their support with the Data and Evidence to End Extreme Poverty project. 

In an earlier paper, Himanshu et al (2025a) present poverty estimates using the recently released Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) of 2022–23. These estimates are based on the officially endorsed methodology suggested by the Tendulkar Committee which underpins estimates for 2011–12. For comparative purposes, Himanshu et al (2025a) also present estimates based on the Rangarajan Committee methodology, proposed in 2014, but never formally accepted by the government. While Himanshu et al’s (2025a) estimates are the first from the 2022–23 survey to be based on an officially endorsed methodology, the study also emphasises that they are tentative at best, given serious comparability issues between the 2022 and 2023 survey and earlier consumption surveys of the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO).