This article analyzes the shift in perception surrounding Peter Dutton's chances of winning the 2025 federal election in Australia. Initially considered a strong contender, his campaign has faced criticism for several key aspects.
These policies, along with his overall campaign strategy, are highlighted as major weaknesses.
Dutton's campaign is further challenged by internal conflicts within the Liberal party and accusations of a lackluster strategy. Labor's attacks are described as impactful, painting Dutton as an unsuitable leader. The article also notes Dutton's reaction to criticism, implying defensiveness and a lack of effective countermeasures.
The article concludes that the election outcome hinges on the effectiveness of both campaigns in addressing key voter concerns and avoiding mistakes. Dutton’s ability to turn around his campaign and the possibility of unexpected events in the remaining days of the election are not dismissed.
Yes, he was. For 12 months in the final year of the Howard government – when all the heavy lifting on tax reform and budget repair had been done. It was also the year that Costello pushed John Howard to go for a massive $34 billion tax cut package – quickly matched by Kevin Rudd. Costello would rather jump off a tall building than promise to repeal income tax cuts as Dutton did after Jim Chalmers ambushed him, threaten insurance companies with divestiture, or contemplate building, owning and operating nuclear power plants.
Labor’s unpretentious tax cuts were designed weeks ago by Albanese and his economics team in preparation for an expected April 12 election. They were meant as a tool to remind voters of other measures Labor had implemented or announced to ease cost-of-living pressures – last year’s stage 3 tax cuts, billions for bulk-billing incentives, energy subsidies, cheaper medicines, HECS relief and so on.
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The bonus was that they turned into a wedge. After adopting all of Labor’s health measures – much safer than devising his own – Dutton was clearly overcome by too much “me too-ism”. It was a bad call.
Then, there was the half-baked gas reservation idea. It provided a good headline – Australian gas for Australians – however, it was missing content, and it now threatens to crumble under expert examination. Just like the unaffordable, undeliverable nuclear policy was meant to mask continuing Coalition conflict on net zero emissions, gas reservation smelled as if it was devised to divert attention from nuclear.
Dutton says details on gas and almost everything else will come “later”. Responding to muttering from colleagues about his poor campaign, which some senior Liberal MPs say is partly factional and partly post-election leadership positioning, Dutton was dismissive. “Well, I don’t think you’ve seen anything yet.” (Exactly!)
“I think wait until we get into this campaign, and you see more of what we’ve got to offer.”
As if the election is months rather than days away. Wakey, wakey. Voting begins in 19 days.
Dutton has also whinged that Albanese has waged a sledge-a-thon against him. He sounds like the school bully complaining to the teacher that one of the kids he picked on has punched him in the nose. Anyway, he better toughen up because Labor will not stop. Its mission, especially in Victoria, where Labor stinks, is to make him unacceptable. Labor could maintain the status quo in every other state, then lose the election in a state once seen as a stronghold.
There is still time for Dutton to come good, and certainly Labor is not underestimating that possibility. Nor is there absolute confidence inside Labor’s ranks the prime minister will not stumble or succumb to hubris.
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The winner this year was always going to be decided by the campaign. It will be the one whose policies best address the key concerns of Australians, the one who makes the least mistakes, who shows the best character and temperament to be prime minister, who reacts faster and smarter, or better anticipates the forces outside his control that can derail or undermine messages.
Say, like Donald Trump. Or Kyle and Jackie O.
Albanese and Dutton especially – who has gushed over Trump and continues to ape his policies – have nothing to lose if they go in hard against him. How will Trump punish us? By scrapping AUKUS? Please. Make our day.
Malcolm Turnbull is right. No slumping to our knees, no sucking up. Allowing Trump to think it’s OK to treat Australia as an enemy rather than as a friend is not on.
Nor is it OK for a prime ministerial aspirant from Queensland to spit on the capital of the nation he wants to lead while expressing his preference to live in a harbourside mansion in Sydney.
Niki Savva is a regular columnist and author of The Road to Ruin, Plots and Prayers and Bulldozed, the trilogy chronicling nine years of Coalition rule.
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