Imagine going back in time – just 10 years, even – and telling the Conservative Party in Canada that in the 2025 election, they’d be clamouring to win back the support of older Canadians: that in the final week, they’d hastily produce an ad featuring two white, grey-haired men at a driving range talking about how their kids “can’t seem to get ahead,” so they’re voting Conservative, “for a change.” What happened to the order of things? Do cats chase dogs now? Are birds flying north for the winter? Is the NDP promising balanced budgets? (Well, actually, former NDP leader Tom Mulcair did promise that in 2015, but his party made quick work of him.)

If the Conservatives lose this election, which would have been unfathomable just 10 weeks ago, it will be in large part because grey-haired boomers at driving ranges decided to back Liberal Leader Mark Carney. Indeed, over the past six weeks, clear divisions have emerged along geographic, gender and generational lines: Mr. Carney has Eastern Canadians, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has Westerners. Mr. Carney has women; Mr. Poilievre has men. And Mr. Carney has largely captured the boomer vote, while Mr. Poilievre has garnered the support of millennials and Gen Z.

The first two lines of division aren’t particularly surprising, but the latter represents a marked shift in demographic support for both the Liberals and the Conservatives, even since just the past election. And that’s a problem for Mr. Poilievre; though millennials now outnumber boomers in Canada, they are less reliable in terms of turning out to vote.

A Nanos poll released April 23 showed a stark age divide: among those 55 and older, 53 per cent support the Liberals compared to 33 per cent for Conservatives. For those 18 to 34, the Conservatives lead 47 per cent to 30 per cent.

Why is this happening? Aren’t Conservatives supposed to be the party of sweater-vests and pension cheques, and Liberals of youthful optimism (and legal weed)? Both parties have dangled treasures to the older demographic – Mr. Carney has promised to lower the minimum Registered Retirement Income Fund (RRIF) withdrawal amount, and Mr. Poilievre has said he’d boost the amount seniors can earn tax-free, for example – and both have tried to appeal to younger Canadians by addressing concerns about housing and general affordability. But boomers are breaking for the banker, and millennials for the maverick. Why?

Those labels likely have a lot to do with it. It’s ironic, really, that the novice politician seems to represent the status quo more than the lifelong politician, but “vibes,” as the kids say, often have little to do with facts. Mr. Carney’s pitch is that he will protect Canada from the tumult U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to unleash on our economy, and implicit in that offer is the presumption that Canada, by and large, has been working until now. And it has been working if you own a home you purchased 35 years ago, when the median house-price-to-income ratio was around 4.9 (it’s more than triple that now in some municipalities), and you can now retire comfortably with both your feet and your elbows up.

But if purchasing a home seems like a hopeless endeavour, and if you’re struggling to find a job or keep up with the cost of living – well, then, the two-time central banker doesn’t seem like the guy who will bring about real change. It’s telling that a Leger poll conducted earlier this month found that Liberal voters were more likely to be motivated by fear, whereas Conservative voters were more likely to be motivated by hope. That makes sense; when the status quo isn’t really working for you, there’s no point fearing the additional havoc Mr. Trump might cause. So you throw your support behind Mr. Poilievre – the guy who, until the wave of nationalism provoked by Mr. Trump’s threats, was quite vocal about Canada’s “broken-ness” – and hope that he will act on his slogans to fire the gatekeepers, build the homes and so on.

This demographic divide in Canada will break badly for Mr. Poilievre, however. The Conservatives can hope the polls are wrong (it wouldn’t be the first time!) and hope that a few last-minute ads appealing explicitly to boomers will swing a few votes (maybe!), but Mr. Carney’s perception as the better leader, with the steadier hand, and more impressive résumé, seems to have already earned the support he needs from Canadians who reliably vote. Tough break, again, for the kids.

The poll by Nanos Research, conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV, surveyed 1,313 Canadians from April 20 to 22, 2025. It has a margin of error of 2.7 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20. Respondents were asked: “For those parties you would consider voting for federally, could you please rank your top two current local preferences?” The full methodology for all surveys can be found at: tgam.ca/polls.