Page Reader AI | Open Questions | ‘Stay calm. Be patient’: Zheng Yongnian’s antidote for China’s Trump shock

Open Questions | ‘Stay calm. Be patient’: Zheng Yongnian’s antidote for China’s Trump shock | South China Morning Post

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Key Concerns about a US-Russia Thaw

Zheng Yongnian expresses concern over a potential peace deal between the US and Russia that might disadvantage Ukraine and undermine the liberal international order. He highlights the risk of a return to 18th and 19th-century power politics.

Historical Context and Current Tensions

He notes that while Henry Kissinger previously suggested a US-Russia alliance against China, the current consensus within the US remains that China is the primary adversary. However, unlike the Cold War, a US-Russia deal might trigger unpredictable responses from Europe.

Worst-Case Scenarios and Geopolitical Instability

Yongnian points out the potential for the rise of right-wing forces in the US to influence similar movements in Europe, potentially leading to global instability. This is presented as a worst-case scenario.

Zheng Yongnian is a leading political scientist in China and a government adviser. His academic work is mainly about contemporary China, particularly politics, the country’s transformation and its external relations. In an interview conducted before China’s “two sessions”, he discussed the impact of Maga on China, and how the country could become more resilient. This interview first appeared in SCMP Plus. For other interviews in the Open Questions series, click here.

The United States and Russia are discussing how to end the Ukraine war. What would be the impact on China of a sudden thaw in US-Russia ties, and could this increase the possibility of the US aligning with Russia against China?

Everyone wants to end the war, but the question is how. A major concern is that a potential peace deal might come at Ukraine’s expense, as both Ukraine and the European side have been excluded from the negotiations. Such a deal could be detrimental to the world, as it indicates [US President Donald] Trump’s final blow to the liberal international order, a return to the power politics of the 18th and 19th centuries, or the law of the jungle.

During Trump’s first term, there were media reports that [former secretary of state] Henry Kissinger suggested the US align with Russia to counter China. And the consensus inside the US that China is the primary competitor and adversary has not changed until now.

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But the situation is different from the Cold War when the entire Western world was against the Soviet Union. Now, if Washington and Moscow reach a deal, the European response might be a new factor in geopolitical changes.

And it is possible that the rise of right-wing forces in the US could pull up right-wing forces in Europe, which might throw the world into new chaos. That is just a worst-case scenario.