Several Melbourne suburbs experienced significant property value increases in the last 10 years. Cardinia Shire (including Berwick, Beaconsfield, and Officer), saw values jump from approximately $400,000 to over $741,000. Similarly, Whittlesea-Wallan experienced growth from $430,000 to $739,000.
Several factors contributed to this growth:
While growth was significant, areas like the Mornington Peninsula experienced a softening of prices and values recently. However, Cardinia Shire continues to be seen as having strong long-term investment potential due to population stability and ongoing demand.
Despite some recent improvements in affordability, constraints remain, especially for first-home buyers. However, the significant gap between Sydney and Melbourne's median dwelling values (Sydney's being 54% higher) positions Melbourne competitively in the market.
A house purchased in Cardinia Shire (which includes Berwick, Beaconsfield and Officer) for around $400,000 a decade ago would now be worth over $741,000. A similar trend played out in Whittlesea-Wallan, where values climbed from $430,000 to $739,000.
Haynes said education options are driving Cardinia’s growth. “You have a huge range. That brings a lot of families our way. Also, you get a lot of people downsizing from acreage, so there’s a diverse audience which ultimately raises prices.”
Haynes’ all-female agency fields requests from TV crews to showcase glamour estates, and “we get Sydney buyers calling about Berwick. They hear you get a bigger land size, more value, all close to really good schools”.
Adam Dureau, director at Jellis Craig Mount Martha, said affordability per square metre relative to the inner-city corridor has been key on the Mornington Peninsula.
“The peninsula has represented good value for money and a great lifestyle, and it offers diversity across the buyer demographics. You can’t pigeonhole what comes to market. You get everything.”
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Most of these areas haven’t fundamentally changed, Lawless said, “but anecdotally, as owners have accrued equity in their homes, we could see a more significant level of renovation or urban renewal in some of these markets.
“Additionally, many of these areas do have more land available for development, so inherently, as more greenfield land is developed and the population increases, these areas will gradually undergo some change, including improved transport infrastructure and essential amenities.”
A few per cent a year might not sound like much, but “the difference of a percentage point in average annual growth rate over 10 years is significant”, said Lawless.
“A property valued at $500,000 ten years ago would have seen a $314,000 increase in value based on a 5 per cent annual compounding rate of change. Under a 4 per cent compounding change, the uplift would be $240,000, and with 3 per cent, the difference would be $172,000.”
While the peninsula remains a long-term growth leader, “momentum has shifted”, said Dureau, with values and prices softening.
But in Cardinia, suburbs “absolutely” still offer strong long-term investment potential, Haynes said.
“We will still see an incline in annual growth. People get used to living in the area and don’t want to leave in their next life stage, whether that’s up- or down-sizing. It’s why prices have jumped so much.”
The past couple of years have seen some affordability improvements, said Lawless, but “affordability constraints remain a key challenge across the market, especially for first home buyers”.
Looking ahead, he’s optimistic: “The gap between Sydney and Melbourne’s median dwelling values hasn’t been this wide since 1999. Sydney’s median is now 54 per cent higher, which puts Melbourne in a strong competitive position.”
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