A calamitous spring ice storm, federal and provincial elections and a trade war with the United States are some of the forces delaying the start of the traditional spring selling season in Ontario’s cottage country.

The Victoria Day long weekend was a chance to reset as new listings arrived on the market and out-of-town buyers headed north to Muskoka, Georgian Bay, Haliburton and the Kawartha Lakes.

On March 28, a winter storm barrelled through Ontario cities such as Barrie, Orillia and Peterborough. Power outages and downed trees wreaked havoc in a wide swathe of surrounding cottage country.

“We got hit with some of the most devastating weather we’ve ever had,” says broker Anita Latner of Anita Latner Realty in Muskoka.

As listings begin to arrive, she says, buyers are being prudent amid economic uncertainty and volatile financial markets.

“Even people with money are being a little more careful than normal,” she says.

The calmer market reminds her of the days before the COVID pandemic, when buyers could take their time.

“It’s definitely a buyer’s market,” she says. “Prices that sent everyone’s heads spinning – those days are over.”

Sellers who set a realistic asking price will sell, she says.

“I just don’t think you can be flamboyant this year. You have to read the market and be astute about it.”

Jeff Strano, real estate agent with Re/Max Professionals North in the Haliburton area, says cottage owners have been consumed with assessing the damage and cleaning away debris.

Many who were planning to list properties for sale were forced to hold off.

“It was definitely a later spring than the last few years,” says Mr. Strano. “I feel like we’re a month behind.”

Inventory surged in the opening weeks of May as cottages were prepped and election campaigns were in the past, he adds.

Potential buyers, meanwhile, stayed away.

“It was dead,” Mr. Strano says of the early spring. “The buyer demand is farther behind than the listing demand.”

In his conversations with aspiring buyers, he’s also hearing a pervasive sentiment that prices have farther to fall.

“Let me know when the price drops,” is a quip he’s hearing often these days.

Leading up to the Victoria Day long weekend, the Haliburton region had 156 waterfront properties for sale, compared with 126 at the same time last year, Mr. Strano says.

For the year to date, Haliburton saw 48 waterfront properties change hands by the end of April, according to Mr. Strano’s number-crunching. That’s a 29.4 per cent drop from the same period in 2024, when 68 waterfront properties sold.

The average cottage sale price year-to-date is $988,600, which marks a 3.5 per cent dip from the $1,024,000 average price recorded in the same period last year.

The average days-on-market has jumped to more than 50 in 2025 compared with 23 in the opening months of 2024.

That longer stretch on the market is leading some sellers to become more willing to negotiate on price, he adds.

Mr. Strano says the increased choice allows buyers to strike a better deal and make an offer with conditions on having a home inspection and securing financing.

During the early years of the pandemic, the zeal for waterfront properties led to many buyers bidding huge amounts above the asking price without conditions.

The average list price in Haliburton so far this year is $1.208-million compared with $1.05-million in the same period last year, but Mr. Strano cautions that a few high-end properties currently on the market above the $4-million mark are pulling the average up.

Of the properties that have sold so far, many have been listed under the $700,000 level, he adds.

Mr. Strano points out that there’s a window now during which to purchase a property at about 15 to 20 per cent below the 2022 peak. Buyers can have a fair offer accepted with conditions, he adds, and interest rates may have farther to fall.

But many consumers believe cottage prices have been inflated for years.

“I think they’re going to be disappointed if they think there’s going to be a major crash or correction.”

Mr. Strano says some of the COVID-era buyers who paid lofty prices while interest rates were at historic lows may be forced to sell this year if they need to renew a mortgage at today’s rates, but many will also be able to hang on and avoid selling at a loss.

He’s optimistic that sales will be brisk in the second half of the year if trade tensions settle down.

“There’s a lot of pent-up demand for people who want to buy and sell.”

Paul Crammond, broker with Chestnut Park Real Estate, says a few cottages sold on the Big Three lakes in Muskoka in the 10 days or so before Victoria Day, including one or two above the $4-million mark.

The day before the long weekend, he listed a vintage cottage with 610 feet of shoreline on Lake Rosseau for $5.695-million.

He has also brought back a cottage on Lake of Bays after it came on the market last July and hadn’t found a buyer by the fall. He’s keeping the asking price of $2.395-million, he says.

He expects more inventory that sat through the fall to land back on the market this year, along with a rush of new listings.

Still, there’s very limited supply on the prime lakes at any given time.

“Our inventory up here usually doesn’t get out of control.”

Mr. Crammond says many of the sellers in Muskoka are long-time cottagers who are selling because of “age and stage.” Unlike homeowners in the city, they don’t need the cash from one property to purchase another, he says, and it’s not uncommon for cottages to take up to three years to sell.

“That category of seller doesn’t necessarily have the same urgency.”

He’s expecting a hectic few weeks for both listings and sales as the season gets rolling.

“Every year there is an initial spring flurry,” he says. “Buyers want to get in for the season.”

Leah Zlatkin, a mortgage broker who provides expertise for LowestRates.ca, says many cottage buyers are less affected by the angst surrounding the economy because they are often using money that has been set aside rather than seeking financing.

“Typically the people buying cottages are quite secure,” she says.

Ms. Zlatkin notes that some buyers who do need a mortgage plan to rent out the cottage to help with carrying costs. That has become harder to do in the short-term rental market in many areas because municipalities are tightening regulations.

But for those who do have money, the market is tilted in favour of the buyer in many parts of Canada, she adds.

According to Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics, the continuing downturn in Canada’s housing market indicates that U.S. tariffs – despite recent de-escalation – are starting to take a real toll on this country’s economy.

In a note to clients, Mr. Ryan says he expects the real estate market to stabilize over the coming months, but the weakness will likely lead to a couple of additional cuts to the Bank of Canada’s key interest rate in 2025.