Election 2025: Latest updates

• Canada’s tariff-war election ended in triumph for Mark Carney – a central banker who, until last month, had never held political office – and the Liberals, who will return to power in a new minority Parliament. Mr. Carney’s next steps are to make a new cabinet and begin the trade talks he promised to U.S. President Donald Trump.
• Pierre Poilievre, projected to lose his suburban Ottawa riding to a Liberal, pledged to stay on as Conservative Leader after his party made gains in the Toronto area and B.C., and stayed strong in his home province of Alberta, but not enough to form government.
• The Bloc Québécois, diminished in Quebec but still the third largest faction in the House, could be a powerful player now that the NDP has lost official party status and its leader, Jagmeet Singh, was defeated in his riding. Mr. Singh promised to step down once an interim replacement is available.

Canada’s election results, and what they mean

The new political map

To win a majority in this election, a party needed at least 172 seats in the House. None succeeded on Monday night, but the Liberals came closer to the mark than they were under Justin Trudeau, whose resignation made way for Mark Carney to become Prime Minister.

The Canada-U.S. tariff war and President Donald Trump’s annexation rhetoric propelled most federalist voters to the Liberals – who peeled away crucial Quebec ridings from the Bloc, but faced disappointment in Ontario’s 905 region – or the Conservatives, who got their biggest share of the popular vote since Stephen Harper’s era, but could not translate that into enough seats.

How the leaders’ ridings went

The fate of the Liberal, Conservative and NDP leaders’ ridings tells us a lot about how the election went overall. Mr. Carney, who had never held elected office before, and Pierre Poilievre, an MP for more than 20 years, ran in neighbouring parts of suburban Ottawa. Whereas Nepean voters turned out comfortably for Mr. Carney, Carleton voters are projected to replace Mr. Poilievre with Bruce Fanjoy, a Liberal. And far to the west, in Burnaby Central, Jagmeet Singh fell to a distant third behind the Liberal and Conservative challengers, losing the seat before he pledged to step down as NDP leader.

How the pollsters fared

Public opinion polls, including Nanos Research’s findings for The Globe and Mail, more or less accurately anticipated the surge in support for the Liberals and Conservatives, but some misjudged how deeply the New Democrats would lose. “The NDP are about to hit a historic low in popular support never seen before,” chief data scientist Nik Nanos said, adding that the drops in New Democrat and Bloc support were within his pollsters’ margin of error.

Voter turnout

Elections Canada’s turnout figures are preliminary, but overall, as experts expected, they do not break records in the way that advance polls did over the Easter weekend. Turnout is higher than recent campaigns, but it would have had to reach 75.3 per cent to match the consequential elections of 1984 and 1988, which, like this one, centred on Canada-U.S. relations and trade.

What Carney has promised to do next

Implementing Mr. Carney’s agenda will be a delicate process in a Parliament where the Liberals need help to govern, but their usual federalist partners, the New Democrats, are in no shape to offer it. Here’s what we can expect within the next two weeks:

• Cabinet making: Mr. Carney took office in March with a 24-person cabinet, and the new one will be no more than 30, a senior Liberal official told The Globe.
• Recalling the House: Official business has been on hold since January, when Justin Trudeau resigned, but MPs could be back in session shortly after the cabinet is sworn in.

Once Parliament returns, a Throne Speech will set out what the Liberals plan to do first. Trade and the economy are among the top issues for the next government to address, but not the only ones.

• Trade talks: Mr. Trump and Mr. Carney agreed in early April to reconvene after the election and sort out the Canada-U.S. trade relationship more formally. Canada has until May 3 till another Trump tariff measure kicks in, a levy on auto parts.
• Tax cuts: One of Mr. Carney’s promises was a middle-class tax cut, which, by his party’s estimates, would save two-income families up to $825 annually.
• Carbon pricing: When Mr. Carney dialled down the consumer carbon price to zero on his first day in office, it did not change the legislation that keeps the contentious policy in place. It will take Parliament to amend those laws.
• Housing: The promised Build Canada Homes program aims to stimulate construction of 500,000 new homes per year, and give GST breaks to first-time homebuyers.

What will Trump and Canada’s allies do now?

Mr. Trump shared more of his “51st state” rhetoric on Truth Social while polls were open on Monday, but it’s anyone’s guess what he will say or do about the new government now that it’s been chosen. Leaders in Europe and Australia were first to respond to Mr. Carney’s victory, congratulating him and underlining their countries’ ties with Canada.

Compiled by Globe staff

With reports from Bill Curry, Stephanie Levitz, Robert Fife, Steven Chase, Marie Woolf, Eric Andrew-Gee and Paul Waldie

Election 2025: Commentary and key reads

The Decibel podcast

From our columnists

Andrew Coyne: Trump vs. change made for an uncertain mandate

Shannon Proudfoot: Election hopes deflate at Tory HQ

Campbell Clark: Mark Carney is a politician made by the moment, but there are much bigger moments coming

Tony Keller: This election came down to ‘who do you trust?’

From the campaign trail

Profile: Is Mark Carney a shrewd strategist or just lucky? Both, say those who know him

East to West: In The Globe’s election postcards, anxiety and endurance were the only constants

Platform guide: Compare pledges on issues from Trump to housing