The recent military confrontation between India and Pakistan, which involved the worst fighting between the regional rivals in decades, marked the first time the two nuclear powers used drones against each other in conflict.
This builds on a global trend, as countries and nonstate actors increasingly rely on drones for surveillance and sabotage, targeted killings, and more. From battlefields in Ukraine to skirmishes in the Red Sea, the use of drones in military settings is proliferating worldwide.
But the involvement of drones in this round of the conflict between India and Pakistan represents an inflection point in their complicated history of hostilities and carries major potential implications for any future military exchanges, according to experts.
âThe use of drones in this military confrontation marks a significant shift in the character of South Asian warfare,â said Rabia Akhtar, a visiting fellow at the Project for Managing the Atom at Harvard Kennedy Schoolâs Belfer Center. âArmed drones were used against each other in a contested battlespace, which now signals the normalization of a tool that was previously peripheral to direct India-Pakistan hostilities, not that it wasnât part of their inventory.â
It has also reignited debate over whether, as some experts have theorized, their use is less escalatory than other weapons such as missilesâparticularly in a conflict involving nuclear-armed countries.
Though many of the details of the conflict are murky and analysts are still working to understand how everything played out, one key takeaway is clear: Drones, especially loitering munitions, are likely to play a big role in any future South Asian conflicts due to their relatively low cost, ability to strike targets with precision, and perceived usefulness as a tool for sending political messages without escalating fighting to full-scale war.
As the dust continues to settle amid a tenuous cease-fire, information on precisely which weapons were used, and in what manner, is still difficult to nail down. But both sides reportedly employed suicide drones, also known as kamikaze drones or loitering munitionsâa type of single-use weapon frequently used in the Russia-Ukraine war.
âIt is notable that both sides have reportedly used kamikaze drones or one-way attack drones, which is another global trend,â said Stacie Pettyjohn, a senior fellow and the director of the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Beyond Ukraine, Iran and its proxies, including the Houthi rebels in Yemen, have also used suicide drones to âterrorize ships in the Red Sea, to attack U.S. bases in Syria and Iraq, and to attack Israel,â she added.
Though these types of drones are often shot down, theyâve proved to be extremely effective as part of a âlarger coercive strategy that involves consistent but relatively low-level pressure and how this wears down the defenderâs inventory of interceptors and might cause them to make mistakes,â Pettyjohn said.
Reports indicate that India used Israeli-made drones, including IAI Harop loitering munitions for precision strikes and Heron drones for reconnaissance. Pakistan âprobably employed a mix of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 and Akinci drones, along with Chinese-made Wing Loong II and CH-4 drones,â said Jahara Matisek, a professor at the U.S. Naval War College. (Matisek noted that his views are his own and not that of the U.S. government or Defense Department.)
India used loitering munitions such as the Harop to target what it said was militant infrastructure in Pakistan, which is âin line with [Indiaâs] doctrine of surgical precision,â Matisek said. Pakistan, meanwhile, leaned on ârelatively cheap systemsâ that enabled fast, flexible strikes and helped offset Indiaâs conventional military superiority.
The recent clashes between India and Pakistan offer further evidence that drones have become the preferred weapon in armed conflicts worldwide. Drones have made artillery more precise and deadlier, and drone swarms have proved to be extremely effective in probing and overwhelming enemy air defenses.
Though the United States held a relative monopoly on drones during the first decade or so of the so-called global war on terrorism, the rest of the globe has caught up. Drone warfare is evolving at a blistering pace, and countries are rapidly building arsenals of drones in all shapes and sizes.
The drastic ways in which drones have shaped the war in Ukraine have led militaries across the globeâparticularly the U.S. militaryâto place greater emphasis on investment and training in unmanned systems. Though the recent fighting between India and Pakistan lasted only days and offers a far more limited case study than Ukraine, thereâs no doubt that militaries and armed groups around the world are studying how drones were employed.
Drones appeared to play a âpivotal roleâ in shaping the tempo and tactics of this conflict, Matisek said, opening a ânew chapter in how these two nuclear-armed rivals fight each other.â
âWhatâs significant here is that this wasnât just a technological shiftâit was symbolic. Drones became a tool for strategic signaling, showing that both sides now possess a form of air power thatâs persistent, precise, and politically âcheaperâ to use,â Matisek said.
James Patton Rogers, an expert on drones at Cornell University, told Foreign Policy that âthe drones provided each side with the capacity to limit strikes to military targets, test defenses, and provide a lower escalation response to each otherâs military activity.â
The heavy reliance on drones in the four-day conflict may have played a role in preventing the fighting from spiraling into an all-out war. Though drones were part of a âbroader tit-for-tat dynamicâ that also involved missiles, artillery, and airstrikes, they offered both sides a âlow-cost, high-impact option for rapid retaliation and to shape the battlefield,â Matisek said.
The use of drones in this conflict was âcalibrated, not reckless, suggesting that both governments saw drones as escalation management tools rather than war-winning platforms,â he added.
âFor the first time, both sides used drones not just for surveillance but for direct strikes,â Matisek said, which enabled âprecise, standoff attacksâ without the same political and operational risks of manned aircraft. This âlowered the threshold for engagementâ and made it easier to conduct strikes with minimal human losses on both sides, he added, which translated into less domestic political pressure âto do bigger retaliatory strikes against each other.â
Drones help âdampen escalation risks because if they are shot down, a human doesnât die,â Pettyjohn said. This âsomewhat paradoxicallyâ means that states are more likely to send drones on risky missions, which increases the likelihood theyâll be shot down, she added, but this doesnât increase the pressure to retaliate because itâs âsimply the loss of equipment.â
âEven though Pakistan shot down some expensive Israeli-made Heron drones, it was not as big of a deal as losing the crewed aircraft,â Pettyjohn said.
Some experts warned that portraying drones as an effective means of responding to provocations without crossing red lines is a slippery slope.
âThis is a dangerous game to say the least,â Rogers said. âStates may see drones as a âlow escalationâ weapons systems due to their cheaper cost and the fact they have no human on board, but equally these could have been read as probing attacks, testing each otherâs air defenses in advance of further strikes and escalation.â
Rogers said thereâs also a risk of drones being âtoo successful and inflicting a critical level of damage,â adding that in this particular case âwhat appears to have kept the drone conflict from escalating further is that many of the drones were shot down by robust air defense.â
Similarly, Akhtar warned that the âperception of drones as less escalatoryâ makes them particularly âdangerousâ in the context of South Asia, a region she said is vulnerable to multidomain escalation.
âIf the lesson learnt now is that drone warfare offers a controllable, cost-free option, then it creates a false sense of strategic insulation,â Akhtar said.
âIn a region where conventional crises can escalate rapidly, drones lower the threshold for initiating kinetic action while raising the risk of misperception and unintended escalation.â The normalization of drones may âincentivize tit-for-tat operations to settle scores quickly, especially in the absence of robust crisis communication mechanisms,â she added, which would âgradually chip away at deterrence stability.â
âAs drone technology becomes more precise and autonomous, which it will over time, it risks blurring the line between tactical gains and strategic missteps. If this crisis has taught us anything, it is that drones are not just tactical assetsâthey are now strategic signaling tools for both countries. Their use must be seen not in isolation but as part of a broader shift toward a multidomain competition where the margin for error is rapidly vanishing,â Akhtar said.
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