Investment Strategies: Aequitas warns of stretched equity valuations in India amid falling earnings yield - The Economic Times


AI Summary Hide AI Generated Summary

Key Concerns Raised by Aequitas

Aequitas Investment firm expresses worry over stretched equity valuations in India. They note that the earnings yield on the Nifty is currently below the post-tax return on 10-year government securities.

Earnings Yield Analysis

The analysis shows that the Nifty's P/E ratio of 22 implies a yield of 4.5%, while 10-year G-Secs yield approximately 4.7% post-tax. This indicates that equities are not adequately compensating investors for the risk involved.

Underlying Issues

Aequitas points out several concerning factors:

  • Slowing earnings
  • Softening demand
  • Promoter exits

These factors increase the risk of capital erosion.

Investment Strategy Recommendation

Aequitas cautions against the "Greater Fool Theory", suggesting that investors should not rely on selling assets at even higher prices. They advise investors to evaluate alternative investment options with better risk-reward profiles.

Sign in to unlock more AI features Sign in with Google
Mumbai: Investment firm Aequitas has flagged growing concerns around stretched equity valuations in India. The asset manager, run by Siddhartha Bhaiya, pointed out that the earnings yield - often used by institutional investors to measure equities' risk-reward versus bonds - on the Nifty has fallen below the post-tax return on 10-year government securities.

"Today, from a 10-year perspective, at current yields, equities are yielding lower than fixed income," said Aequitas in a note. "With key indicators flashing red - slowing earnings, softening demand, and promoter exits - the risks of capital erosion have grown significantly."

Earnings yield is the inverse of the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio - a popular measure to evaluate valuations of an index or stock. Earnings Yield shows whether equities are compensating investors for the higher risk they carry.

With Nifty's P/E ratio of 22 times, the implied yield stands at 4.5%, while 10-year G-Secs are yielding 7.1% pre-tax, translating to roughly 4.7% post-tax.

"Low apparent bond yields coupled with a skewed taxation structure has meant there has been an incessant flow of money into the equity markets," said Aequitas. "On the surface, the narrative is one of growth, optimism and rising participation. But beneath that lies a concerning divergence - between valuations and fundamentals, between inflows and earnings, between optimism and reality."

Live Events

Aequitas said it does not subscribe to the "Greater Fool Theory, where one buys at a high P/E only with the hope of selling at an even higher P/E."

"It's time for investors to ask: are they settling for less, when better risk-reward opportunities may be within reach?"

Was this article displayed correctly? Not happy with what you see?

We located an Open Access version of this article, legally shared by the author or publisher. Open It

Share this article with your
friends and colleagues.

Facebook



Share this article with your
friends and colleagues.

Facebook