Zoe Daniel, a losing candidate in the recent Australian election, has called for a recount in the Goldstein electorate. This follows a narrow loss to Tim Wilson, where the margin has fluctuated significantly during the vote counting process.
Daniel's request is supported by data scientist Simon Jackman, who points out several issues. Firstly, Jackman highlights the significant increase in electorate size since the 100-vote recount trigger was established in 2007. He argues that this necessitates a higher threshold given Goldstein's larger size. Secondly, Jackman notes anomalies in the count, specifically citing a large bundle of votes initially allocated to Daniel that were later shifted, possibly to the Greens candidate.
Jackman suggests a recount would resolve any lingering questions and ensure the result's integrity.
Tim Wilson, the victor, initially claimed victory but has since stated that the votes have been counted multiple times and that he hopes for peace for everyone involved.
Wilson said the votes had been counted at least four times and Liberal and teal volunteers had scrutineered the count.
“And now the former MP is asking for a full recount,” he said. “At some point we should respect the professional staff at the [AEC]. I wish Zoe Daniel, her family and staff well in the next chapter. I hope she finds peace.”
Daniel initially claimed victory in Goldstein on election night but postal votes came in strongly in Wilson’s favour leading him to claim a win in the seat two weeks ago.
However, Daniel did not concede and since then the count in Goldstein has continued, with Daniel narrowing the margin to as little as 128 votes to Wilson at one stage.
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Daniel has been getting advice from data scientist Simon Jackman, who has pointed out the increased size of electorates since the 100-vote trigger for a recount was decided in 2007, and to anomalies in the count.
Jackman said the AEC’s 100-vote guidance was implemented following the McEwen recount of 2007.
“That 100 votes is not key to an error rate, it’s an absolute number,” he said. “It was conjured up in 2007 when electorates were a lot smaller than they are now.”
Jackman said that because Goldstein was 40 per cent larger than the average electorate in 2007, he thought Daniel could make the argument that a 100-vote margin in 2007 was a 140-vote margin today.
Jackman also said there were anomalies in the Goldstein count that might deserve a recount.
“If you look closely at the Goldstein count, there are a few hiccups in the count,” he said. “The AEC or someone has made a mistake at the Hampton pre-poll voting centre where a huge bundle of votes that were given to Zoe Daniel were then taken away, and it looks like they may have gone over to the Greens candidate in large [part].”
Jackman said the count had been “a bit bumpy” in some polling centres in Goldstein, particularly the Brighton pre-poll centre, and a recount would help dissipate any concerns.
“Why not take another two or three days to just put any issues to bed and that way no one’s got any argument at all?” he said.
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