Both state seats sit within Flinders’ boundaries.

Multiple Liberal sources told The Age there was genuine concern within the party that the Flinders result could go down to the wire, prompting a fresh wave of spending.

One source said political operatives had been surprised by the size of Smith’s signage and doorknocking operation and that he seemed to have quickly gained name recognition.

Another said Labor’s more concerted effort in the seat could also make polling day more unpredictable if it succeeded in further splintering the primary vote across the region.

Former Liberal strategist turned Redbridge pollster Tony Barry said he didn’t believe Flinders was in significant danger but parts of the electorate had “teal characteristics”.

“There are areas of affluence and a reprioritisation of issues. That’s not to say that it won’t happen, but Zoe [McKenzie] works for the community pretty hard,” he said.

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Smith, an ordained minister and volunteer leader who has the support of Climate 200, said he had noticed hundreds of additional Liberal corflutes across the seat in the final weeks of the campaign.

“They've got ads running every single minute of the day on television and YouTube and Facebook,” he said.

“They’re spending a ton of money because they’re really worried. And who knows, that might be good indication for us.”

Smith did not detail the full cost of his campaign but said he had 400 donors locally, alongside Climate 200 funding.

“There’s no way you can do it otherwise. You’ve got to spend a bit of money doing these campaigns, especially as an independent,” he said.

“But primarily we’re going to win this not through the ads … We have 600-plus volunteers now in the campaign, that’s where we’re going to win.”

Smith and his volunteers wear bright-yellow “beach colour” T-shirts, not the traditional teal colour the movement has become known for. He lists issues such as healthcare, infrastructure, aged care and access to the NDIS and Medicare as key local topics.

McKenzie also lists infrastructure a key concern in the seat, particularly poor public transport connections.

The Coalition has pledged $900 million for a major upgrade of the Frankston rail line out to Baxter.

This would require a 50/50 funding split with the state, and Jacinta Allan’s government has not backed the proposal since it was removed from the Commonwealth’s agenda as part of its infrastructure review.

McKenzie said her voters were also particularly sensitive to issues for small businesses – typically safe ground for the Liberals.

She said her team had to spend their money differently because Flinders’ population was the fifth-eldest in the country, with more resources dedicated to boosting engagement on Facebook than catch-up TV or YouTube.

McKenzie said teal candidates campaign on broad concepts and value propositions, and community issues that the Australian parliament had no jurisdiction over.

“The answer is for federal parliamentarians to work closely with state parliamentarians to get things done, as I have shown in recent months working with Chris Crewther on crime or Sam Groth on Rosebud Hospital.”

The Age revealed on Wednesday an impromptu comment from McKenzie about Welcome to Country ceremonies at an invite-only sunset garden talk hosted by Josephine and James Baillieu.

Praising soprano Rebecca Gulinello’s rendition of the national anthem, McKenzie thanked her for “the best Welcome to Country that I am sure has been delivered”.

When contacted afterwards, McKenzie would not comment on the matter. “It was a private event,” she said.

Labor candidate Sarah Race said her operation was the biggest Labor campaign in the seat in 40 years.

“Our incredible army of volunteers and I have knocked on 10,000 doors, 10,000 more than ever before,” she said.

“Locally, we’ve fundraised far more than ever before so we can get our message out.

“A truly grassroots local campaign has met people where they are, at home, at the shops, and amongst community groups.

“Every conversation my team and I have with locals gives us more confidence that the peninsula is ready for change after 40 years of the Liberals.”

Race said ALP volunteers had been talking about Medicare, urgent care clinics and upgrades to roads and sports facilities.