The article analyzes five tax increases that could potentially address the UK's budget deficit, focusing on those least unpopular with voters. These include raising the additional rate of income tax, increasing tobacco and alcohol duties, raising corporation tax, increasing the higher rate of income tax, and raising capital gains tax.
While these tax increases are relatively palatable to voters, their potential revenue generation is limited. Raising the additional rate of income tax to 47% would only generate approximately £270 million. Similarly, increasing tobacco and alcohol duties, even by more than usual, could yield only around £315 million annually. A corporation tax increase could generate over £10 billion in the short term, but long-term economic consequences are a concern. Increasing the higher rate of income tax and capital gains tax also present limited revenue generation potential due to behavioral changes and manifesto pledges.
The most revenue-generating options, such as raising VAT and income tax for lower earners, violate Labour's election manifesto pledges, making them politically challenging. The Chancellor faces a dilemma – either breach manifesto promises, make smaller, less impactful increases, or face further budget constraints.
Experts, like Robert Salter of Blick Rothenberg and Stuart Adam of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), highlight the limited impact of these less unpopular tax options and the overall difficulty in balancing the budget without breaking manifesto commitments or triggering significant public backlash.
The HM Treasury emphasizes the importance of economic growth to strengthen public finances, reiterating its commitment to maintaining low taxes for working people.
Experts believe there is a good chance Rachel Reeves may have to raise taxes later in the parliament
email X WhatsApp Facebook link share Share bookmark Save
email X WhatsApp Facebook link bookmark
The tax increases most palatable to voters if Rachel Reeves were to raise them in the autumn would net the Government “pretty negligible” sums, posing a potential headache for the Chancellor.
Reeves is facing a budget deficit of £57bn by 2029, according to one forecast released last week, and will likely have to make further spending cuts or put up taxes in order to meet her tight fiscal rules.
And a BMG Research survey for The i Paper earlier revealed that voters believe Reeves should target higher earners if taxes have to rise to balance the books.
Putting more duty on alcohol and tobacco and raising corporation tax, paid by companies in the UK on profits, were also among the least hated tax measures.
But analysis for The i Paper suggests that if Reeves were to tinker with these taxes, this would not give her the significant sums needed to balance the books.
Scroll down for a full list of the five tax hikes that would be least hated by voters, how likely Reeves is to increase them and how politically difficult that would be for the Labour Government.
Figures from accountancy firm Blick Rothenberg show that an increase in the top rate of tax – paid by those earning over £125,140 a year – from 45 per cent to 46 per cent would raise £135m in extra revenue, while an increase to 47 per cent would raise £270m.
Although these amounts would increase over the coming years as more people become additional rate taxpayers.
Robert Salter, a partner at the firm, said: “These values are all pretty negligible, when you consider the overall scale of Government tax receipts.”
Alcohol and tobacco duties rise each year, and the Budget watchdog has already assumed this will happen again next year, but Blick Rothenberg’s calculations suggest even if the duties were increased by more than usual, the total amount raised could be just £315m per year.
A corporation tax rise could raise over £10bn in the short term, but experts suggest that longer term, an increase could have negative economic effects. It would also breach a promise from Labour’s election manifesto.
The taxes that the public least want to see increased, such as VAT and income tax for low earners, are among those that could raise the most money.
Just 4per cent of the public would back a VAT increase if tax rises were needed, but a 1 percentage point increase to the rate could raise in the region of £8.5bn in extra revenues for the Government in the first year.
Increasing the basic rate of tax – paid on earnings between £12,570 and £50,270 – from 20 per cent to 21 per cent would also raise £7bn a year in extra receipts.
But upping income tax or VAT rates would break a flagship election pledge by Labour.
The party said in its manifesto: “Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national i nsurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”
Sources close to the Chancellor have insisted she is not planning to raise taxes again and is instead optimistic that the Government’s policies on economic growth will reduce the need to borrow.
But she has left herself relatively little “headroom” against her fiscal rules, meaning that it would not take much deterioration in the economy – perhaps driven by the ongoing global turmoil – to force her into another squeeze on the public finances. Further spending cuts, the other way to reduce borrowing, would risk a ferocious backlash from Labour MPs.
Stuart Adam, senior economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), said the Chancellor was in a “potentially difficult position,” if she did end up needing to find more money.
He said: “She has only a whisker of room against her rules, but bad news since her spring statement could mean she has to find more money.
“It’s a case of borrowing, tax rises or spending cuts. On taxes, there are manifesto pledges not to increase the ones that raise the most, or at least not raise the rates. They could break their manifesto pledges or look at other taxes – and perhaps make a number of other small tax rises, which add up to something together.”
“You could look at new taxes. There are bold claims for example about how much a wealth tax could raise, but it’s difficult to do,” he said.
Salter, of Blick Rothenberg, also warned that even with taxes that do raise cash, “behavioral changes” can reduce the tax take over time.
A HM Treasury spokesperson said the best way to strengthen public finances was “by growing the economy” which was the Government’s “focus”.
They added: “We are committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible which is why, at last Autumn’s Budget, we protected working people’s payslips and kept our promise to not raise the basic, higher or additional rates of Income Tax, employee National Insurance or VAT.”
The Government has also committed to to capping corporation tax at 25 per cent for the whole Parliament.
Five tax rises the public are least opposed to, and how much each would raise
1. Additional rate of income tax
This is charged on income above £125,140, at a rate of 45 per cent. The threshold is frozen at £125,140 until 2028.
An increase from 45 per cent to 46 per cent would raise £135m in extra revenue for the Government, and an increase to 47 per cent would raise £270m.
“These numbers would increase over time – as more people will gradually be pushed into the 45 per cent tax band – but the estimates even for 2027/28 would suggest that this would only bring in an extra £230m or thereabouts for a 1 per cent rise,” explains Robert Salter, of Blick Rothenberg.
A total of 48 per cent of voters would back an increase to the additional rate of income tax, according to BMG’s polling for The i Paper last week.
Likeliness rating: 3/5 – This would break Labour’s manifesto promise but would be welcomed by many of the party’s MPs.
Danger rating: 2/5 – Voters rarely have much sympathy for the highest earners, but there is a risk of driving ultra-wealthy taxpayers away from the UK altogether.
2. Tobacco and alcohol duty
Taxes on alcoholic drinks are paid according to the strength, while on tobacco, rates vary depending on whether you are buying cigarettes, handrolling tobacco or cigars.
The rates increase every year, and some increases are already assumed in the years ahead by the Office for Budget Responsibility, meaning bigger increases would be needed to improve the public finances.
Salter said even if you had a three per cent effective increase, “you are only looking at perhaps getting another £315m or thereabouts in overall tax receipts.”
A total of 37 per cent of voters would back an increase to these taxes.
Likeliness rating: 5/5 – It is almost certain that at some point Reeves will hike these “sin taxes” to raise a bit of cash.
Danger rating: 1/5 – Even though they increase the cost of living, the public tends to be pretty tolerant of these types of duties.
3. Corporation tax
This is a tax companies pay on profits. There are various rates but the headline level is 25 per cent for companies with profits over £250,000.
There are various reliefs that can reduce this in certain circumstances, but if the headline rate were raised to 28 per cent, Salter suggested this could raise £10bn to £12bn.
But he added: “Though it could increase tax receipts in the short-term, I would suggest that this could be very bad ‘marketing’ from a wider, UK perspective. That is, in terms of how the UK is seen by international businesses and it would appear to go against the Government’s stated ‘open for business’ agenda.”
A total of 26 per cent of voters would back an increase to corporation tax.
Likeliness rating: 2/5 – The Chancellor will be very wary of alienating businesses again after the backlash to her national insurance hike last year.
Danger rating: 3/5 – Businesses would be spitting feathers, but most voters may be less concerned.
4. Higher rate of income tax
This is charged on income between £50,270 and £125,140, at a rate of 40 per cent. The threshold is frozen at £50,270 until 2028.
An increase from 40 per cent to 41 per cent would raise approximately £1.45bn initially, with the figures rising a little over the following years, according to Salter.
A total of 22 per cent of voters would back an increase to the higher rate of income tax.
Likeliness rating: 1/5 – As well as being a direct breach of a manifesto pledge, this would be a tax hike on millions of Brits.
Danger rating: 5/5 – Many of those who fall in this bracket do not feel particularly wealthy and would be furious at being targeted by the Chancellor.
5. Capital gains tax
This is a tax on the profit when you sell something that’s increased in value, like property or shares.
The rates vary for multiple reasons, and so different tweaks would raise different amounts, but Mr Salter suggests that any increase is unlikely to raise much, if anything at all, because people’s behaviour would change – and they may delay selling assets.
“This is linked to the fact that there is classically a lot of ‘flexibility’ as to when someone sells an asset and there is a strong suggestion that increases in the CGT rate often result in people deferring the sale of their assets,” he says.
A total of 20 per cent of voters would back an increase to capital gains tax.
Likeliness rating: 4/5 – Reeves has already fiddled with capital gains tax once and is likely to be tempted again in the coming years.
Danger rating: 2/5 – The rules on capital gains are complex and so it is not too hard for the Government to raise a bit more money without most ordinary people noticing.
If you often open multiple tabs and struggle to keep track of them, Tabs Reminder is the solution you need. Tabs Reminder lets you set reminders for tabs so you can close them and get notified about them later. Never lose track of important tabs again with Tabs Reminder!
Try our Chrome extension today!
Share this article with your
friends and colleagues.
Earn points from views and
referrals who sign up.
Learn more