Dutton’s pledge to allow tax deductibility for mortgages at least gives him a story to tell, if he can stay disciplined enough to tell it.

It has been a haphazard campaign studded by policies thrown together in haste with increasing concerns expressed privately about the disconnect between Dutton’s office and campaign headquarters.

Dutton’s freelancing hasn’t helped, including on Sunday, when he insinuated the prime minister had been drunk when he called in to a Darwin radio station to gazump the opposition’s Port of Darwin announcement. It made Trump calling Joe Biden “Sleepy Joe” positively benign, especially as Anthony Albanese has been near teetotal since January. Launch speeches are designed to show leaders are ready to be prime minister. It was off-piste and definitely off.

Afterwards, one seasoned Liberal campaign official described it as “the most uninspiring campaign I have ever worked on”.

Before Price’s weekend comments, there were murmurs about Angus Taylor positioning for a post-election challenge to Dutton’s leadership. By Sunday night, angry Liberals reported “the knives are out”.

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Another pivotal moment for Dutton was on March 3 when opposition finance minister Jane Hume announced a Coalition government would end working from home for public servants – that’s if they still had work.

Within hours of Hume’s speech, senior Liberal women who sensed the dangers urged the party hierarchy to dump it. Immediately. They were ignored. Dutton stuck with it for more than a month.

Another senior Liberal who last year dared to dream the Coalition could win, or at least form minority government, answered their phone at the end of last week without even saying hello to predict:“Labor majority or Labor minority.”

Dutton has no choice now except to knuckle down and concentrate on selling the fuel tax rebate and tax relief for mortgages.

There are still plenty of soft voters waiting to be won over who could be tempted by two fists full of dollars. Others will not be swayed by hearing the son of a wealthy politician complain about the difficulties of buying a house.

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It highlighted something else very wrong with this debate. Poor old taxpayers are expected to fork out billions for housing because it’s now seen as unfair for kids to expect help from the bank of mum and dad. Even if they are loaded.

If the Coalition loses this election, the size of the loss will determine the extent of the post-poll bloodbath. If Dutton gets to 68 seats but fails to secure minority government, it will be seen as a respectable loss. He will be re-elected as opposition leader, assuming he wants it, and live to fight another day.

If it turns out to be a status quo election, Taylor is expected to make his move. Taylor is already being blamed for the policy failures, even though in theory and in practice everything flows from the leader and his office. The briefing against him is designed to thwart his leadership ambition.

According to my sources, Taylor’s surrogates have spent weeks sussing out the disposition of colleagues, taking the kind of temperature checks regarded as precursors to a move against the leader. He has made some surprising gains across factions and states.

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Weeks ago, I said on ABC’s Insiders there were three leaders running in this election, and only one of them was definitely not Trump. Yesterday, in response to this masthead’s Resolve poll showing how much Trump had wounded him, Dutton insisted there were only two – him and Albanese. Too late, she cried.

Dutton’s campaign needed to be blemish-free in the days before, during and after his launch. It wasn’t. It needed to grab attention. It did, although again not always for the right reasons. Time is running out. He needs to win every one of the few remaining days.

Although Albanese has campaigned better than expected, it has not been fault-free. Trying to pretend he hadn’t fallen off the stage when he had was dumb. Almost, not quite, as dumb as continuing to show his aversion for Tanya Plibersek.

Niki Savva is a regular columnist and author of The Road to Ruin, Plots and Prayers and Bulldozed, the trilogy chronicling nine years of Coalition rule.

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