Dutton has not specified which other parts of the system he would cut. “We’ll take that advice when we get into government in relation to where the economic settings are and where the demands might be,” he said this week.

But Rizvi said culling soaring numbers of working holidaymakers would be unavoidable if the Coalition was to cut net migration by 100,000 more places than the government.

There were 226,510 working holidaymakers in Australia at the end of February – an increase of 43,000 compared to March 2024, and 90,000 more than March 2023. British backpackers are driving the surge.

“Working holidaymakers are the second-biggest contributors to net overseas migration. They’re going to have to do something about that,” Rizvi said.

“We’ve got a very generous working holidaymaker program now: the age limit was pushed from 30 to 35 for many countries; the UK now gets an automatic three-year visa. The length of time they’re staying is getting longer and longer.”

But Rizvi said Dutton would face two political challenges if he cut backpackers’ visas. “First, you have to renegotiate agreements with every country. Secondly, the tightening would be strongly resisted by the tourism industry, regional Australia and the Nationals.”

The second part of the Coalition’s policy reduces permanent migration numbers. The government’s program allows 132,200 places in the skilled migrant stream and 52,500 places in the family stream.

Tehan told the ABC’s Radio National on Thursday that the Coalition had ruled out changing the family stream, which covers partner, parent and child visas. “We’re not targeting family visas,” Tehan said.

This forces the Coalition to deliver all 45,000 of its promised cuts to skilled migration, which would lower the intake to 87,200 and abandon the Howard-era principle that stipulates two-thirds of the permanent migration program should be from the skilled stream.

Asked whether this could backfire given Australia’s skills shortage, Tehan said important areas – workers in trades, health, aged care and hospitality – would be prioritised.

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He said the Coalition wanted to bring in more aged care workers and tradies, given fewer than 10,000 tradespeople were in the skilled migrant intake last year.

“We want to prioritise those trades areas, to complement our plumbers, our electricians, our builders,” he said.

“In terms of hospitality, where we need chefs and cooks, we’ll look at prioritising those areas.”

Nurses are the largest professional group in the skilled migrant stream, followed by accountants, software programmers and chefs.

Given the Coalition will prioritise visas for nurses and chefs, the biggest groups that would be hit by cuts to the program are accountants, IT professionals and engineers.

Rizvi said businesses, regions and state governments that sponsor many skilled migrants would resist such cuts. It would also hurt the budget.

“The skilled stream pays more in tax revenue than they take out in health, education and other benefits. Treasury will have to put a number to that,” he said.

Tehan’s office was contacted for further comment.