Dutton recently described himself to this masthead’s Deborah Snow as “centre-right in the [John] Howard mould and economically dry and pragmatic”.

But that is not necessarily how others would describe his position on the ideological spectrum.

“Staunch conservative named as Australia’s opposition leader,” the BBC reported in May 2022 when Dutton was elected Liberal leader by his party room.

Reuters described him for its international readership as a “plain-speaking conservative”.

Former WA premier Mark McGowan called Dutton “extremely conservative” and “an extremist” who didn’t “fit with modern Australia at all”.

But what about Dutton’s fit with the modern Liberal Party? Is he a true conservative or is he a right-wing populist masquerading as one? Does he believe in liberalism, particularly when it comes to financial markets and labour law reform?

And how can a true conservative want to throw billions of taxpayer dollars into state-owned energy assets?

“The usual way of talking about the Liberal Party is that it has melded liberal and conservative traditions, right back from Menzies in the mid-1940s,” says Frank Bongiorno, professor of history at the Australian National University.

“Dutton fits broadly within that idea, the amalgam of traditions. He is normally considered to be to the right of the Liberal Party – that is reasonable, I think.”

Bongiorno says Dutton is “by no means an atypical product of what the Liberal Party became in the period after Malcolm Fraser, grappling with the relationship between liberalism and conservatism but veering towards conservative”.

‘He is not willing to attach himself inflexibly to ideology.’

Frank Bongiorno, Australian National University

“It’s more populist. They have flirted with Trumpism, both Morrison and Dutton, but I don’t think they’ve taken the party terribly far in that direction.”

On culture war issues, Dutton has shown a temperate mix of pragmatism and traditional conservatism.

It was Dutton who came up with the compromise position of a postal survey to determine the same-sex marriage issue, when it threatened to tear apart liberals and conservatives within the Liberal Party room.

“That’s interesting, I think,” says Bongiorno. “It’s in the pragmatic tradition of the Liberal Party. He is not willing to attach himself inflexibly to ideology.”

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Likewise, Dutton moved quickly last year to shut down abortion access as a federal issue, when it cropped up in the LNP campaign for the Queensland state election in November 2024.

Dutton reportedly quelled backbenchers who wanted to make abortion a federal issue, and publicly confirmed his support for women’s reproductive choice.

“I’ve been in very difficult circumstances as a detective working in the sex offenders squad where I’ve dealt with women who have been raped ... it’s a very, very difficult situation,” he told the ABC in November.

“Ultimately, that’s a choice and a decision for that individual to make – and that’s the position I support.”

Dutton has also shown a complete lack of interest in taking on trans rights as an issue, in sharp contrast to his predecessor Scott Morrison, who supported candidate Katherine Deves in her bid to win the independent-held seat of Warringah at the 2022 election.

Deves had controversial views on trans people, making comments including asserting that they had been “mutilated” by medically transitioning. Morrison continued to back his candidate, saying that the issue she raised was “concerning” and “troubling”, despite the protests of trans rights groups.

By contrast, on Thursday, Dutton dealt quickly with a reporter who asked about trans issues, saying, “I think a woman is defined as an adult female and that is the definition”.

He blocked further attempts at questions on the subject.

‘A true conservative is sceptical of change.’

Tom Switzer, Centre for Independent Studies

But in other respects, Dutton has shown a willingness to wade into so-called “culture war” issues; for example his announcement, last December, that he would not stand beside Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander flags at press conferences if he is elected prime minister.

He said standing with multiple flags was “dividing our country unnecessarily”.

“We should stand up for who we are, for our values, what we believe in,” he told Sky News. “We are united as a country when we gather under one flag.”

Tom Switzer is the executive director of the Centre for Independent Studies, a conservative think tank. He says that Dutton is authentically conservative on social and cultural issues.

“A true conservative is sceptical of change and hostile to sudden, radical, disruptive change,” Switzer says. “In that regard, Dutton is a Burke-ian conservative when it comes to change. You see that at play with the progressive agenda – he played an important role in defeating the Voice.”

Switzer says it is Dutton’s progressive opponents who want to “change and upend” the normal state of affairs.

“He is trying to conserve the status quo.”

Switzer also points to Dutton’s strong stance on border protection during his time as home affairs minister as being part of the conservative tradition of “boosting confidence in our large-scale, non-discriminatory immigration program”.

But, Switzer says, on economic issues, Dutton has disappointed conservatives.

Dutton’s economic agenda includes threats to intervene in the insurance market and to force divestment of supermarkets, his gas reservation policy, and his proposal to use billions in taxpayer dollars to build state-owned nuclear power plants.

“He’s indulged in business-bashing populism,” says Switzer.

Breaking up supermarket chains and insurance companies might not be feasible, and “would not do anything for productivity”.

“Even Albo has called that policy Stalinist. You’re not going to win middle Australia by being to the left of Albo.”

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Switzer says Howard and his long-time treasurer, Peter Costello, stood for “aspiration and prosperity”.

“Now you have that same party saying more about tax breaks for small business entertainment than wanting to lift living standards through productivity growth,” he says.

Switzer says there is a consensus emerging that Dutton “has not done enough to distinguish himself from the Labor Party on economic issues”.

“It’s a new incarnation of wet paternalistic thinking that will do nothing to boost prosperity. There is no sense of fiscal restraint; he is trying to ‘me too’ Labor on all the promises, which will just put up inflation.”

Dutton’s flirtations with right-wing populism have led to unfavourable comparisons with US President Donald Trump, comparisons Dutton’s campaign has rejected.

But Robert Menzies Institute fellow Damien Freeman is hesitant to link Dutton with Trump.

“Dutton would say he is someone who straddles the divide between liberalism and conservatism.”

Trump, by comparison, is not a conservative, Freeman says.

“What Trump offers is a form of polarised politics … I don’t think we are seeing Dutton take the Liberal Party in that direction. There is a commitment to institutions.”

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While Dutton has “certainly tried to signal to people who are opposed to identity politics”, Freeman doesn’t believe “there is anything to say he has abandoned this dual tradition of liberalism and conservatism”.

In Bongiorno’s analysis, Dutton is not “Trumpian”, but some of his policies seem loosely connected with the right-wing populism that is resurgent in the US and parts of Europe.

“Dutton’s personal outlook is a bleak outlook – it’s much less optimistic than Howard and Morrison,” he says.

“That is what he seems to be taking from trends of the right globally, a greater pessimism and a willingness to have the state intervene to protect people from these malignant forces.”

Dutton will soon be judged on how many seats he can wrestle back from Labor and the teals. Even if the Liberals lose, he may get close enough to remain the party’s leader and continue to shape its future.

His ultimate place in the Australian conservative tradition is yet to be determined.

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis from Jacqueline Maley. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter here.