Donald Trump's presidency has been characterized by an unprecedented use of executive power, with numerous executive orders shaping governmental actions, particularly concerning equity and diversity. He has signed fewer bills into law than any recent president.
Despite promises of early success on the world stage, Trump's administration has faced failures in ending wars in Ukraine and Gaza, reaching a nuclear deal with Iran, and resolving various trade wars. His approach has been marked by chaos and frequent reversals.
In collaboration with Elon Musk, Trump launched Project 2025, resulting in the dismantling of agencies and programs, mass firings, and the overriding of Congressional acts. Foreign aid, vaccine programs and food programs have been terminated, significantly reducing US soft power.
Trump has actively targeted his political enemies, pursuing retribution through prosecutions and blacklisting. He has also attacked the media, targeting specific news outlets and seeking to limit their reach.
The Democratic Party's response has been limited by lack of Congressional control, resulting in low favorability ratings. The article draws historical parallels to the 1930s, suggesting the potential for significant political shifts in the upcoming midterm elections.
Growing public protests signal mounting resistance. If economic conditions worsen, the midterm elections could mark a major turning point, potentially limiting Trump's power through a Democratic victory.
Trump is not governing by legislating but by an unprecedented exercise of executive power. Trump has signed fewer bills into law than any recent modern president. His 100 executive orders have triggered a tidal wave of new policies to change what the government can and cannot do, especially on equity and diversity issues.
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Trump’s style of political power is marked by decrees coupled with complete domination of the airwaves for several hours each day, from greeting world leaders in the Oval Office to his televised cabinet meetings. For Trump, it is all streaming, all the time.
But the grandmaster of The Art of the Deal is flailing. Trump promised big, early success on the world stage. But he has to date failed to end the wars in Ukraine or Gaza or come close to a nuclear deal with Iran or settling the dozens of trade wars he launched against his allies, including Australia. Trump is chaotic, with constant reversals in tactics and rhetoric.
Together with Elon Musk, Trump unleashed Project 2025’s sledgehammer to the bureaucracy. There is wanton dismantling of agencies and programs with mass firings, loyalty oaths, and seizure of databases. Trump and Musk have overridden acts of Congress to close down agencies and programs. Trump and Musk have ended the projection of US soft power overseas by terminating foreign aid, vaccines and food programs.
Trump is exacting vengeance on his enemies – exactly as he promised his voters (“I am your retribution”). Trump wants his enemies prosecuted. Trump has called on judges who have ruled against him to be impeached. Trump has blacklisted law firms that worked with Democrats. In a speech at the Department of Justice, Trump said his enemies were “scum”, that the cases brought against him were “bullshit”, that the judges who ruled against him were corrupt, his prosecutors were deranged, and that those who came after him should be imprisoned. For his war against the nation’s most prestigious universities, Trump is demanding their leftist woke elitism be expunged, or else research dollars and tax-free status will be eliminated.
Trump continues to target the media as the enemy of the people. The Associated Press has been excluded from presidential events. The Voice of America has been shut down. Trump has asked the regulator to cancel the broadcast license of CBS. Trump is moving to defund public media’s NPR and PBS.
The Democrats in Washington are adrift. Without control of the House or Senate, Trump dominates everything in the capital. The force and scope of Trump’s actions are so intense that the Democrats cannot respond effectively. The party now has the lowest favourability since the 1990s.
What happens from here? History can illuminate the future. Trump’s presidency increasingly evokes the 1930s, at home and abroad. Then, Republican Herbert Hoover was president. Wall Street crashed in 1929. The Depression began. Republican tariffs and refusal to stimulate the economy sent the country reeling. Authoritarians seized territory in Europe and Asia.
But America’s voters fought back. In the November 1932 election the Republicans were run out of town, losing 100 seats in the House and 12 in the Senate. The US was saved at home by Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal – and ultimately by the defeat of fascism.
Every weekend, people are flooding the streets in cities across the country. That movement is growing. If all that Trump has spawned comes into full force but does not deliver the American miracle he promised – with recession, inflation, and chaos taking hold across the land – the midterm elections next year could be a turning point, as was 1932. The Democrats are in striking distance. If so, Trump’s power will be checked by Democrats in Congress. Trump’s golden age will die before its birth.
Bruce Wolpe is a senior fellow at the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Centre. He has served on the Democratic staff in the US Congress and as chief of staff to former prime minister Julia Gillard.
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