Victorious candidates Ramesh Jarkiholi and Mahesh Kumathalli are all smiles .

The BJP won all the six seats in Bombay Karnataka and the lone seat in Kalyana Karnataka in the bypolls. What is more, all the seven candidates got decisive victories by securing over 50% of the polled votes. All the seats were held by the Congress.

It seems that the desire for a stable government, influence of Lingayats on voters of other communities and appeals by Chief Minister B.S. Yediyurappa to help him complete his term, swayed the voters. An organised effort by the BJP as opposed to the lethargic and disunited work by the Congress seems to have accentuated the margins.

However, serious issues such as inadequate flood relief compensation, crop loss and pending sugarcane arrears seem to have had limited impact. Congress leader Siddaramaiah’s claim that defection and moral questions attached to it were more important than flood relief, also did not turn out to be true.

The Lingayat influence was visible as only those community candidates associated with the BJP won. In Kagwad, Shrimanth Patil, a Maratha fighting on a BJP ticket, defeated Raju Kage, a Lingayat nominated by the Congress. In a campaign rally in Gokak, the CM openly appealed to the Veerashaiva Lingayat voters to support his government. Election officials booked a case against him for seeking votes in the name of caste.

The BJP’s campaign was organised and its cadres seemed enthused. It appointed booth and ward committees to follow up on voter preferences. In contrast, the Congress campaign seemed disorganised and in seats such as Kagwad and Yellapur, it seemed like the Congress candidates were left alone to fight the polls. Added to these are the factors that weigh on the results of any bypoll, like the ruling party having a distinct advantage, and the impression that electing the Opposition candidate would not make a difference.

Vacuum in leadership

Defections created a huge vacuum in leadership in parties. The Congress had to develop new networks of workers, supervisors and organisers. Incumbent MLAs were power centres around whom the party was built. When they left, the Congress faced a daunting task of finding candidates and rebuilding cadre networks in a short time. Local reasons scuh as the hope that Ramesh Jarkiholi would become Deputy CM or Hosapete becoming the headquarters of a new district, or the Maratha identity of Mr. Patil, may have influenced the decision too.

Mr. Ramesh Jarkiholi’s younger brother Balachandra Jarkiholi told voters that they would be voting for a Deputy CM and not just an MLA. B.S. Anand Singh who is in favour of a new Vijayanagar district carved out of Ballari, told farmers not to sell their land as it would fetch the price of gold, once Hosapete becomes the new district headquarters.

The personal image built by leaders with sufficient clout, such as Mr. Ramesh Jarkiholi and Mr. Singh may have also had an influence.

Some leaders say money power upset the scales. RTI activist and JD(S) leader Beemappa Gadad alleged that the BJP won with the use of unbridled money power.