The Canadian Real Estate Association has sharply downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2025 as buyers remain concerned about tariffs and interest rates.

The new 2025 forecast, which updates a prior forecast released Jan. 15, is CREA’s largest revision between quarters since the 2008-2009 financial crisis. CREA now expects 482,673 residential properties to trade hands in 2025, which would be virtually unchanged from 2024 levels. However, this is a large downward revision from the 8.6-per-cent sales increase predicted in January.

“Declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s senior economist. “In short order, we’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best.”

CREA reported Tuesday that national home sales in March came in 9.3 per cent below the same month last year, reaching their lowest level for March since 2009. Sales were down 4.8 per cent from February, on a seasonally adjusted basis.

This comes after three previous months of declines, with sales falling 20 per cent since their high last November.

“The key trend word right now is uncertainty,” said Katy Mackenzie, mortgage professional at The Mortgage Group in Vancouver. “Some people are very uncertain and they’re pausing their home search.”

The report also said that the national average sale price rose 0.3 per cent in March, an increase over February, but has fallen 3.7 per cent from a year ago.

CREA forecast a 0.3 per cent decrease in the national average home price this year to $687,898, which is about $30,000 lower than it forecast in January. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see small declines in average home prices, while other provinces are expected to see gains of between 3 per cent and 5 per cent.

Ms. Mackenzie said this may be good news for first-time homebuyers, but not so much for those looking to sell or downsize.

“If the price is lower, a smaller mortgage might be needed, so that might help some of the first-time homebuyers,” she said. “But for some that are looking to sell and downsize in their retirement years, it’s a difficult conversation because they’re seeing the value of their home decrease.”

The CREA report said that the supply of homes for sale increased by 3 per cent from February to March. However, combined with lower sales, the sales-to-new listing ratio fell from 49.7 per cent to 45.9 per cent in the same period – the lowest level for this measure since February, 2009.

Ms. Mackenzie said for those who are looking to buy, it can be challenging to find the right property.

“Some buyers are not seeing the properties that they’re looking for,” she said. “Others are seeing good demand on the product that they are looking for, so that there are multiple offer situations.”

Alternatively, she said there are also people who see low prices and room for negotiation with opportunities to get a good deal.

“Investors are hunting for some of these properties that may have a lower value and being able to buy them at a lower price,” she said. “Lower sales due to uncertainty means there’s a bit more negotiation power for buyers.”

Despite all the uncertainty and volatility in the market, Ms. Mackenzie emphasizes having a long-term plan to help weather short-term economic turbulence.

“My statement to things is always, do we have a plan? Can you afford it? Do you qualify for it, and how does that look today or three to five years out with any life cycle changes,” Ms. Mackenzie said. “I think it’s more important to have an overall plan such that you worry less about market changes in the short term.”