Poilievre shares a similar dilemma to Australia’s Peter Dutton. Through his long parliamentary career, Poilievre was a political attack dog; now he’s trying to shake that image to become the likable leader for all. His past embrace of some Trumpian tendencies has come back to haunt him; political opponents like to portray him as Trump-lite (“maple syrup MAGA”).

Canadians seem to worry that a conservative would appease rather than stand up to the US president. Polling from the non-partisan Angus Reid Institute published at the start of April showed 56 per cent believed Carney was the best person to handle the relationship with Trump, compared to just 29 per cent for Poilievre. Political analysts in Canada are debating whether Poilievre’s campaign has been poor or just unlucky.

Poilievre ran on a campaign slogan more often associated with progressives – “change” – hoping that after 10 years of Liberal rule, Canadians were itching for a new direction. He talks about a “lost Liberal decade” and argues a Carney-led government means a continuation of Trudeau’s policies with a new face.

While Carney’s first act after taking over from Trudeau was to scrap the so-called consumer carbon tax paid by motorists at the petrol pump, Poilievre would go further. “We need to get rid of the entire carbon tax on absolutely everything,” he said at a weekend rally, in a refrain familiar to Australian voters.

And much like Australia, housing affordability is front and centre of this Canadian election, with house prices and rents having skyrocketed in many provinces. In Vancouver, the median is more than $C1.2 million ($1.35 million).

Both sides have promised tax breaks for first home buyers, and both are promising to build close to 500,000 homes a year in a country with a population just over 40 million. The Liberals would create a new government developer for affordable housing, while the Conservatives would sell off 15 per cent of federal buildings for new homes and tie city funding to completions. “Build, baby, build,” Poilievre says.

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And the Conservative leader has also promised to move with Trump-like speed if elected: he says lawmakers won’t get to go on their summer break until they pass three key bills on cost of living, crime and jobs.

Poilievre’s former communications director, Ginny Roth, told Canada’s The Globe and Mail that voters accepted the argument for change – but that did not mean they would vote for it.

“Voters are having an emotional response to Trump. They feel traumatised and their response is ‘Carney comforts me’,” Roth, who is now a partner at Crestview Strategies, said.

“A lot of Canadians are going to vote with their hearts instead of their heads.”

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