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The surge in patriotism among Canadian shoppers, fuelled by trade tensions with the United States, is already leaving a sizable mark on American business, early data from a variety of industries suggests.
U.S. tour operators are reporting booking declines of as much as 85 per cent, while American distilleries are losing major deals. Meanwhile, Canadian grocers are posting a bump in domestic product sales of up to 10 per cent.
Donald Trump’s jabs about annexation, along with a 25-per-cent levy on steel and aluminum from Canada and the U.S. President’s threats of a 25-per-cent tariff on most Canadian imports have prompted a rallying cry to “Buy Canadian” across this country.
While consumer boycotts – combined with government policy actions – are causing trouble south of the border, concerns are bubbling up about the toll on Canadian businesses, too.
“To use some of the words I hear from tour company members of the National Tour Association, the drop-off is ‘astronomical’ when speaking about Canadians booking group travel to the United States,” said Catherine Prather, president of the Kentucky-based organization, which specializes in group tours.
One National Tour Association member operator reported just two bookings for U.S. tours in the past two weeks compared to 39 bookings during the same period in 2024, she said. Another Canadian operator, with 85 per cent of their business focused on tours to the U.S., had to scrap every U.S. departure for March, April and May due to client cancellations.
Ms. Prather said Canadian operators and hospitality businesses represent 7 per cent of NTA’s membership, with many focusing a chunk of their business on tours to the U.S. “One of those tour operators has just responded with the latest cancellations – his business will be down 75 per cent this year,” she said.
The exchange rate and fluctuating trade policies have had a “resounding effect” on Canadians’ travel cancellations, she said. But tour operators shared that the rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state is “perhaps even worse,” and in many cases, has been the “deciding factor” for customers.
“It’s almost a three-headed monster right now of rhetoric around Canadian sovereignty, yo-yoing on tariff levels and then the widening gap of the conversion rate,” said Corey Fram, director at the Thousand Islands International Tourism Council. “It’s really teaming up to drive down Canadian visitations to the U.S. side.”
Traffic across some major border crossings in tourism states such as New York has dropped by 12 per cent in the first two weeks of February alone, said Mr. Fram. He cited data provided to him by the Bridge and Tunnel Operators Association for border crossings on the Thousand Islands Bridge between Alexandria Bay, N.Y., and southeastern Ontario.
Statistics Canada data also show that Canadian automobile trips to the U.S. are plummeting. About 1.2 million return trips were made into Canada by Canadians in February – a 23-per-cent drop from that period a year ago.
The U.S. Travel Association warned in February that even a 10 per cent drop in Canadian visitors would lead to more than $2.1-billion in spending losses and a threat to 14,000 jobs.
The Buy Canadian movement is also hitting the grocery aisles. Per Bank, CEO of Canada’s largest food retailer, Loblaw Cos. Ltd., said in February that the company saw about a 10-per-cent uptick in sales for Canadian products in preceding weeks.
Sobeys Inc. parent, Empire Company Ltd., also reported a spike in Canadian product sales in its last quarterly results while purchases of U.S. goods as a percentage of total sales were “rapidly dropping,” according to CEO Michael Medline.
About 12 per cent of the company’s annual sales are related to goods from the U.S. But with shoppers choosing to buy Canadian, Mr. Medline said that brands wanting to stay competitive in Canada are looking at alternative suppliers.
Pierre Cléroux, vice-president of research and chief economist at the Business Development Bank of Canada, told The Globe and Mail that if every Canadian household redirected $25 a week from foreign products to Canadian ones, it would boost GDP by 0.7 per cent and create 60,000 jobs.
According to his modelling, if Canadians also cut international travel by 10 per cent and spent that money domestically, the combined effect would raise GDP by 1 per cent and create 74,000 jobs.
Another U.S. industry reeling from the “Buy Canadian” movement and its manifestation in public policy – including provincial moves to take American booze off the shelves – is American distilling.
Canada is a critical market for U.S. spirits, making up “a little over 31 per cent of all U.S. exports” of distilled spirits in 2024, said Stephen Gould, a Colorado-based alcohol trade consultant at Consulting Alchemist Ltd and former distillery owner.
In addition to bourbon, Canada is a crucial market for U.S. whisky and other spirits as well as wine and beer. Bartenders, waitstaff and retail clerks in the U.S. are among those who will face significant layoffs if trade tensions continue, said Mr. Gould.
“The American industry is suffering,” he said.
Victor Yarbrough, co-founder of Brough Brothers, Kentucky’s first Black-owned distillery, said his company was “deeply disappointed” after losing a lucrative deal to sell its bourbon to New Brunswick Liquor due to trade tensions. The deal was projected to increase company sales by 2.55 per cent in 2025.
“Canada’s a large export market for us,” said Mr. Yarbrough. “Let’s figure out ways to move forward and amicably.”