Number 10 officials are glad Keir Starmer chose the past week to be on holiday. ‘With Arsenal beating Real Madrid, he’d have been insufferable,’ one senior staffer joked. ‘We’re all going to be quietly cheering on their next opponents, PSG, when he’s back. If Arsenal win the Champions League, we will never hear the last of it.’

The Prime Minister should enjoy his break, and his team’s victory. Because when he returns he is set to walk into a political firestorm.

In 11 days Britain goes to the polls for the first time since last year’s General Election. And a number of Labour MPs believe that it will see a backlash so violent it will mark the formal end of ‘Starmerism’.

‘The results are going to be shocking for a lot of people,’ one Labour veteran told me. ‘On the estates our support is collapsing. In those Red Wall seats we took back last year people feel betrayed. They thought they were voting for change but now their view is, “You’re no better than the Tories.’’ ’

Starmer’s political success was built around a strategy of being all things to all people. To metropolitan Britain he was the liberal crusader, committed to reversing the worst excesses of Tory immigration policy like Rwanda, unleashing Ed Miliband’s green revolution and securing a reset with the EU by negotiating a new Brexit deal.

For disillusioned Tory voters and refugees from Corbynism, he was the horny-handed son of a tool-maker, pledged to pump untold riches into the NHS and other ailing public services, harness the benefits of Brexit with his Take Back Control Bill, and smash the people-smuggling gangs.

But a torrid first year in office has seen him upset just about every faction of his wide but fragile electoral coalition.

A torrid first year in office has seenStarmer upset just about every faction of his wide but fragile electoral coalition

Liberals point to his sycophantic attempts to ingratiate himself with Donald Trump. Conservatives cite his disastrous attempt to kick-start economic growth by smothering the economy with higher taxes, while 2019 Boris defectors are reacting with fury to the surge of small-boat arrivals.

And loyal working-class Labour voters are furious at his perceived attacks on pensioners and the disabled.

‘There’s going to have to be a change of approach,’ one Labour backbencher told me. ‘The strategy that won us the Election isn’t sustainable any more. We’ve spread ourselves too thin politically. By trying to appeal to everyone we’ve ended up p****** off everyone.’

For the past month Labour MPs have been keeping their counsel as they attempt to fight off what they see is an electoral pincer movement by the Liberals and Greens on their left flank, and Reform from the right. But when the polls close they are preparing to break cover.

One key area where they will be demanding change is on immigration. Before entering office, Keir Starmer genuinely believed an ‘operational’ approach to tackling the smuggling gangs could lead to a reduction in Channel crossings. And in the first few months of government he had some successes. But the New Year has seen a dramatic surge in arrivals – one that is greatly alarming Labour MPs in Red Wall and southern seats.

As a result, there is now serious talk in Labour ranks about looking at hitherto unthinkable solutions.

‘One of the things No 10 is going to need to look at is the Human Rights Act,’ one Labour insider revealed. ‘Ministers are starting to recognise that every solution they try is going to be stymied by this and the ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights]. They seriously want to look at a new offshoring solution, but they know this isn’t viable if the courts are going to throw up obstacles.’

A second major flashpoint is set to be the economy.

Despite a surprisingly good set of growth figures in February, most ministers believe Trump’s tariff war will drive the global economy into recession. Which in turn means the bleak figures Chancellor Rachel Reeves set out in her Spring Statement are already redundant.

And Labour MPs are no longer prepared to sit back and allow her to balance the books off the backs of the most vulnerable in society.

‘If the figures don’t add up we’re going to need to look at some form of wealth tax,’ one normally centrist backbencher told me.

‘We can’t look as if we’re introducing austerity through the back door. Spending cuts and further cuts to benefits won’t fly unless we’re seen to be balancing it by asking the rich to pay a bit more.’

A further rebellion is brewing over the proposed State visit for the leader of the global MAGA movement.

There are growing divisions within the Cabinet over the extent to which Trump’s meeting with the King should be used as a carrot to secure future concessions on trade and Ukraine, or whether it should be presented as a reward once a trade deal and defence guarantees have been secured. But an increasing number of Labour MPs believe any visit at all would be catastrophic.

‘One of the lines we’ve been pushing on the doorsteps is Nigel Farage is too close to Trump, and by extension Putin. How’s it going to look if the country sees Keir rolling out the red carpet for them?’ one told me.

Within No 10 there is still a hope the fallout from the local elections can be contained. Their tactic will be to shift the focus on to Kemi Badenoch, and what will be her first electoral test as leader.

Inside Labour HQ they also believe there are some tentative signs of progressive ‘Stop Reform’ tactical voting that could blunt the Farage surge

‘This is the moment where Badenoch is going to have to demonstrate she’s making some headway rebuilding her party,’ one Starmer adviser claimed.

‘This is primarily going to be a shoot-out between her and Nigel Farage. And if she isn’t moving forward after 2024, that’s going to be a big problem for her.’

Inside Labour HQ they also believe there are some tentative signs of progressive ‘Stop Reform’ tactical voting that could blunt the Farage surge.

But one Labour activist, who has been canvassing in the North East, downplays the significance. ‘It’s not going to save us in areas like this,’ he reported pessimistically.

Last year Keir Starmer successfully managed to carry his ‘Ming Vase’ all the way to Downing Street. But the pragmatic, safety-first approach that has come to define his leadership is not going to survive further contact with the electorate.

Next month the pieces of that precious vessel will lay scattered across Britain’s shires, unitary authorities and mayoralties. At which point Starmerism will have run its course.

The Prime Minister should spend some of his holiday having a long, hard think about what replaces it.