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Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says his non-confrontational approach to dealing with U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats has worked in the province’s favour, as it avoided duties on its highly lucrative energy and critical minerals sectors.
Mr. Moe’s style differs from some of his fellow premiers, most notably Ontario Premier Doug Ford, who has blanketed both Canadian and U.S. media over the past few months, loudly speaking up for Canada. He popularized the “Canada is not for sale,” motto, after Mr. Trump threatened to annex the country.
The jury is out on which approach has been more effective in dealing with the mercurial U.S. President.
Saskatchewan has largely avoided devastating U.S. tariffs on some of its biggest industries, including oil and gas, uranium and potash. Ontario avoided those same tariffs, but it was unable to fend off tariffs on the auto and steel sectors, which are a major employer.
In an interview with The Globe and Mail, Mr. Moe said Saskatchewan’s approach in dealing with Mr. Trump over the past few months has been to reach out to his cabinet appointees, senators, members of Congress, governors and industry leaders. The province impressed upon them that the U.S. and Canada are highly dependent on each other on trade and pointed out how damaging tariffs would be for both sides.
He has avoided trashing Mr. Trump or getting into sticky situations – unlike Mr. Ford, who got into a public spat with the U.S. President in March after Ontario levied a 25-per-cent surcharge on electricity exports that was quickly lifted.
“It’s been a purposeful effort to not be confrontational in the media, like maybe some other leaders have,” Mr. Moe said.
“But the work has certainly been happening to ensure that Saskatchewan and, more broadly, Canadian products are protected to the degree that they can be.”
Saskatchewan has a lot to lose in any trade war with the U.S.
It expects oil and gas will generate just over $1-billion for provincial coffers in 2025, according to this year’s budget. Most of that product heads south of the border to refineries in Ohio, Illinois and other states. Uranium mined by Cameco Corp. CCO-T and potash produced at Nutrien Ltd.’s NTR-T mines are other major U.S.-destined exports from the province. Energy, uranium and potash at one point were all being threatened with 10-per-cent tariffs by Mr. Trump, but ultimately all three industries were spared (as long as Canadian producers can prove they are compliant with the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement).
Covertly, Mr. Moe has also been fighting to protect these industries from further damage had Mr. Trump indeed pulled the trigger on his threatened tariffs.
Earlier in the year, the federal government mulled that uranium and potash could be used as leverage to put pressure on Mr. Trump, and placing export restrictions around the critical minerals was seen as a possible lever to pull.
“It was raised by the federal government,” Mr. Moe said. “And it was never even under consideration by the province of Saskatchewan, not even for a hot minute.”
Mr. Moe said while he supports countertariffs by the federal government in cases where Canadian jobs are not at risk, the prospect of imposing levies on Canadian uranium and potash would be far too damaging in terms of the impact on jobs in Saskatchewan.
The biggest tariff problem Saskatchewan faces isn’t coming from the U.S., but rather from China. Last month, the Asian superpower imposed a 100-per-cent tariff on imports of Canadian canola oil, canola meal and peas, in addition to a 25-per-cent tariff on pork and seafood. The levies were put in place as retaliation against Ottawa’s 100-per-cent tariff on Chinese-made electric vehicles and 25-per-cent tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum, both announced last August at the behest of the U.S. administration then led by Joe Biden.
Saskatchewan is an outsized player in Canada in canola, accounting for nearly half of the $43.7-billion industry. More than 55,000 people in the province work in the sector. Mr. Moe pointed out that Canada’s electric vehicle industry supports far fewer jobs and is still in the early stages of development. When asked whether the federal government should agree to reduce or drop tariffs on Chinese imports of EVs to save Canadian canola jobs, Mr. Moe declined to weigh in, but he stressed the asymmetry in jobs.
“My ask to the government is to represent all Canadians equally, and to not specifically choose one region of Canada over the other and one industry over the other. And in this case, an industry that is employing a very low number of people at the cost of an industry that is employing a very large number of people.”
Mr. Moe is also looking to the April 28 federal election, and what impact that might have on its oil and gas industry.
Much like its Western neighbour Alberta, which aims to double oil production, Saskatchewan wants to significantly boost crude output. It’s eyeing 25-per-cent growth by 2030, to 600,000 barrels a day.
That’s why clearing the way for new pipeline infrastructure to the west or east coast is crucial, he said, and should be a priority for whoever wins the election.
“If those aren’t available, we’ll be looking actively at how we can add capacity to the south and to the U.S.,” he said.
“That’s a controversial point of view right now, we understand. But if our own nation isn’t going to allow us to provide that product to other Canadians and create that energy secure environment in Canada, well, we’re going to look at what options we have available.”